Maddow flashed a USA map on her show last night and here’s where T performance as President is ‘underwater.’ or unfavorable/disapprove. These polls are good guesses, but never leave any doubt that the T campaign is well underway to thwart those numbers. 
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Another Republican running scared as the blue tsunami catches up with him. 
BTW, love that “Texodus” is trending – let’s keep it in the headlines!
Rep. Michael McCaul does not have to be here, at Carl’s BBQ on the side of a highway, in a wood-paneled backroom, seated at a bare table in front of a stuffed, life-size buck whose antlers hold a sign saying, “NEVER moon a werewolf.”
He doesn’t have to drive east two and a half hours from his home in Austin to find brisket this good, but here is where his voters are. And after the last election, his worst in his 15-year political career, the Republican congressman decided he needs to campaign for them like never before.
McCaul could be forgiven for retiring. In the past four weeks, four of his fellow Texas Republican colleagues have done so – a political phenomenon nicknamed “Texodus” – including two members who represent suburban districts similar to McCaul’s. The Democrats flipped the House in 2018, suddenly making life miserable for GOP members now in the minority, and targeted half a dozen of the members of Congress in Texas, including him. To win, McCaul has to, for the first time, actually try; His once-safe district stretching from Austin to Houston is changing faster than he expected, threatening to throw him out.
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On [the 2018] Election Night, McCaul was shocked, confident in the polling that showed him winning with about 57% of the vote against Mike Siegel, an attorney for Austin and first-time congressional candidate, rather than the four-point nail biter it was. “Ignorance is bliss,” joked McCaul.McCaul barely escaped, but others weren’t so lucky. The midterm elections under President Donald Trump sunk Republicans in suburban districts across the country, including two in Texas, one of which had not been served by a Democrat since George H.W. Bush won it in 1966.
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The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the House Democrats’ campaign arm, saw its success in southern California in 2018 flipping suburban seats and are trying to replicate it in the so-called Texas Triangle. This election cycle, it established headquarters in Austin and plans to open local offices later this year and next.
[Shameless aside: Proud to say I’m one of the Democratic troopers who helped flip CA-49 from Red to Blue in 2018! And we’re now hard at work to ensure our awesome Rep., Mike Levin, wins again in 2020. You can support his campaign at ActBlue.com. Hint. Hint.]
Rep. Marc Veasey, a Texas Democrat, said the population explosion could yield the state two or three more congressional seats after the next census. But he said that rapid demographic change was just one reason why these suburban seats have become competitive after so long, saying the voters "have really had enough of this President – and Republicans not pushing back against a lot of what they see as wrong for the country."
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Democrats pledge to out-work McCaul since they can never out raise him; He’s one of the wealthiest members of Congress. In the stifling August heat one recent evening in Austin, [candidate Shannon] Hutcheson took her two daughters and brother-in-law to knock on dozens of doors. Hutcheson described her pitch as a mother motivated to run by the election of Trump and the desire to finally give women a seat at the table.“This is a tough thing to do,” said Hutcheson. "It is not for the faint of heart, but I’m doing it because I absolutely believe that we have to stand up. We have to stand up against hate. We have to stand up for the working families who aren’t being listened to and aren’t being represented – families like the one I grew up in."
It was her first door-knocking experience and she worked hard – and succeeded – in winning over some votes for the primary. In the leafy neighborhood, she even came across some deer, opened her arms and told them, “I’m running for Congress!”
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Meanwhile, in Iowa, Republican Rep. Steve King’s re-election campaign is off to a flying start…
UPDATE: The estimated crowd size has been cut by 50% (from two attendees to one). Turns out that the woman on the left is a staffer. Oh, and BTW, the woman on the right, who is the only person attending, is a Democrat – there to check out the opposition!
This is the Steve King who holds the dubious distinction of making even more outrageous claims than Trump:
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Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, speaking at a presidential forum on Native American issues on Monday, offered a direct, public apology for the “harm” that she caused and pledged to uplift Native people as president.
Ms. Warren was met with a standing ovation when she took the stage, and she began by addressing the controversy over her past claims of Native American ancestry.
“Like anyone who’s being honest with themselves, I know that I have made mistakes,” Ms. Warren said. “I am sorry for harm I have caused. I have listened and I have learned a lot, and I am grateful for the many conversations that we’ve had together.”
She continued, “It is a great honor to be able to partner with Indian Country, and that’s what I’ve tried to do as a senator, and that’s what I promise I will do as president of the United States of America.”
Ms. Warren, in keeping with her reputation as the presidential candidate with an enormous collection of detailed plans, has made a concerted effort to develop a policy agenda that would help Native Americans.
But her appearance at the forum, held at a theater in Sioux City, was closely watched because of the long-running controversy over the ancestry claims, an issue that is certain to be used against her if she is the Democratic nominee. Ms. Warren faced criticism from some Native Americans last year after she released the results of a DNA test that provided evidence she had a Native American ancestor. After entering the presidential race, she apologized for the DNA test and for identifying herself as Native American during her career as a law professor.
On Friday, Ms. Warren rolled out a set of proposals intended to help Native Americans, covering topics like tribal sovereignty and missing indigenous women. She also released a wide-ranging legislative proposal with Representative Deb Haaland, Democrat of New Mexico and one of the first Native American women to serve in Congress. The proposal covers areas like criminal justice, health care and education.
Thread from “Native” twitter, click tweet to read full thread. 
And this thread covers the views of the most vocal critics from Cherokee Nation
This is such a nuanced story, please read what the critics have to say and understand how racism is still very much alive for many many indigenous Peoples in America.
Friendly reminder: You can have indigenous ancestors but unless you’re active in a tribal community or enrolled in a tribe, you should not claim to be native. Native Tribal citizens are the only ethnic identity in America that actually have a legal definition, any claim otherwise under cuts the sovereignty of Indigenous Nations and their right to self-determination.
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Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, who has centered his 2020 campaign around climate change policy, was not one of the nine Democratic presidential candidates who qualified for an invite to CNN’s climate change town hall in September.
Why it matters: Several polls point to climate change as a top issue for Democratic voters, but Inslee, whose proposals and debate appearanceshave been focused on severing the U.S. from fossil fuel dependency, is still polling around 1%.
- CNN said it would extend invitations to candidates who reach 2% in at least four DNC-approved polls conducted between June 28 and Aug. 21. Candidates have until Wednesday to qualify for the Sept. 4 town hall, so it means Inslee will likely end up being locked out.
The lineup:
- Former Vice President Joe Biden
- Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.)
- South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg
- Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.)
- Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (Texas)
- Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.)
- Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.)
- Andrew Yang
- Worth noting: Sen. Kamala Harris (Calif.) was invited, but declined due to a scheduling conflict.
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I don’t normally post about the more back and forth stuff that’s happening on the Dems side but this is a total power play move. By taking this strong position Warren sets the argument for her policy as well putting herself in clear contrast to both Biden and Harris past and present. It’ll be interesting to see the responses of the other candidates as well.
Elizabeth Warren subtly distinguished herself from rivals Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on Tuesday as she laid out her plan for criminal justice reform.
In a lengthy, detailed plan posted on Medium, Warren called for the repeal of the 1994 crime bill — which Biden helped write as a senator — and for the federal government to push states and localities to decriminalize school truancy, in contrast to the stiffer penalties Harris championed during her career in California.
She saw an opening to pivot the whole debate back to policy, her policy and she just took it.
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Upcoming debate status:
The debate will be held at Texas Southern University, a public, historically black university, and will air across ABC, Univision with a Spanish translation, locally on KTRK-TV and on ABC News Live. The streaming channel is available on the ABCNews.comwebsite and apps, as well as Hulu Live, The Roku Channel, Facebook Watch, AppleTV, Amazon Fire TV, YouTube, Apple News and Twitter.
If 10 or fewer candidates are certified by the Democratic National Committee to participate, the debate will take place on one night.
If more than 10 candidates qualify under the rules, the debate will take place over two nights. For the two-night scenario, ABC News in accordance with the DNC will hold a selection event on Aug. 29 to randomly assign the candidates to a night. The format of the debate will be one minute and 15 seconds for direct responses to questions and 45 seconds for rebuttals.
So far, 10 candidates have qualified for the third round of debates, according to an ABC News analysis of publicly released information and pending verification by the DNC after the qualifying deadline, including:
- Former Vice President Joe Biden
- New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker
- South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg
- Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro
- California Sen. Kamala Harris
- Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar
- Former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke
- Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders
- Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren
- Entrepreneur Andrew Yang
Earlier this year, prior to the first Democratic debates, the DNC announced more stringent qualifying rules for the fall debates in September and October. Details for the October debate have not yet been announced.
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Jay Inslee quits the race on #maddow show
He’s got a powerful voice for climate change…he’s going to keep fighting.
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Former Gov. John Hickenlooper will run for Senate, sources familiar with the governor’s decision told The Denver Post.
Hickenlooper told a congressional Democrat of his decision to run this week, according to a source familiar with the conversation. Two other sources close to the governor confirmed the decision. All declined to be identified to preserve their relationships with the candidate.
Partisan control of the U.S. Senate hangs on a handful of key races, including Colorado’s. Cory Gardner, Colorado’s junior senator, is considered one of the most vulnerable Senate Republicans up for re-election in 2020, and national Democrats, who want to leave nothing to chance, see Hickenlooper as the best chance to beat him.
Yes, we can take the Senate! Let’s do it! 
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Representative Seth Moulton of Massachusetts is dropping out of the presidential race, ending a candidacy that emphasized Mr. Moulton’s centrist politics and military service but gained no traction with Democratic primary voters.
Mr. Moulton, 40, said in an interview that he had no immediate plans to endorse another candidate, but he warmly praised former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. Mr. Moulton planned to announce the end of his campaign in a formal speech before the Democratic National Committee on Friday.
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Although this is about the current trends in Trump’s approval ratings, I placed it in the election thread because it also looks ahead to 2020. Yes, it’s very, very early, but this one fact especially stood out – and it must terrify Trump (if any of the sycophants surrounding him has dared to whisper it in his ear):
No president has won an additional term with an approval rating as low as Trump’s is currently.
Onward to 2020!
Poll of the week: A new national CNN/SSRS poll finds that President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 40%. His disapproval rating is 54%.
His approval rating is down from late June when it was 43%. His disapproval rating is slightly up from 52% in late June.
What’s the point: Over the last month and a half, a lot has happened in our national dialogue. Trump went after four congresswomen of color. Then he turned his sights on Maryland Rep. Elijah Cummings, who is black. More recently, there were the shootings in El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio. And fears are growing over a potential economic slowdown.
All together, it seems like recent news cycles are causing a downturn in the President’s fortunes. His approval rating does seem to be sliding, which is troublesome news heading into 2020.
Presidents’ approval ratings have been highly correlated with their re-election margin. In the midterm elections, Trump’s approval rating lined up nearly perfectly with his party’s vote share in the House elections.
And while the shift in our CNN poll is not statistically significant given the margin of error of +/- 4 points, it’s not the only poll to show that Trump’s approval rating is down.
Take a look at these other probability-based polls that meet CNN’s standards and were completed over the last two weeks.
- AP-NORC puts the President’s approval rating at 36%, down from 38%.
- Fox News gave Trump a 43% approval rating, a decrease from 46%.
- Gallup shows Trump’s approval rating at 41%, down from 42% in late July and 44% in early July.
- Monmouth University pegs Trump’s approval rating at 40%, down from 41%.
- NBC News/Wall Street Journal found Trump had an approval rating of 43% among all adults, a decrease of 2 points from 45% in July among registered voters and 1 point from 44% in their last poll that surveyed all adults in June.
None of these poll results individually are all that convincing that Trump’s approval rating has declined. Together, however, they make a fairly strong case.
Adding in the CNN poll, Trump has an average decline of 2 points in his approval rating. That may not seem like a lot, but keep in mind these polls put together have a sample size of more than 6,000 people. The chances that all of these polls have Trump’s approval down, even by a mere 2 points, is tiny.
Normally, a 2-point drop in a president’s approval rating would not be a big deal. For this president, however, a 2-point movement is a bigger deal than usual.
Trump’s approval rating has been unusually stable. Any sort of movement is noteworthy with him. According to Gallup, no president has had as narrow a range (35%-46%) of approval ratings than Trump. Trump’s still within that range, though now more toward the middle than the upper part of that range as he had been earlier in the year.
Trump needs to be able to break out of the narrow range in order to make himself a favorite for reelection. No president has won an additional term with an approval rating as low as Trump’s is currently.
The further Trump’s approval rating strays from his disapproval rating, the harder he makes it for himself to win in 2020.
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Joe Walsh, a conservative former U.S. congressman turned talk show host, on Sunday became the second Republican to challenge President Donald Trump for the party’s 2020 White House nomination.
Walsh criticized Trump, who has strong support among Republicans, as a bully who is unfit for office as he announced his long-shot bid.
“I’m running because he’s unfit,” Walsh, 57, told ABC’s “This Week” program. “Somebody needs to step up.”
“He’s a bully and he’s a coward and somebody needs to call him out,” Walsh said. “The bet … of my campaign is that there are a lot of Republicans that feel like I do. They’re afraid to come forward.”
Asked to respond to Walsh’s criticism of the president and decision to run, Trump’s spokesman replied, “Whatever.”
NYT confirms
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And Steve King’s campaign has gone broke apparently. 
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Oh crap, this guy again?
Updated with original story.
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One more GOP departure…
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Oh hell. Basically, Trump’s starvation of agencies has left the FEC without enough members to function.
Federal Election Commission to effectively shut down. Now what?
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This “redo” election is crucial! It’s the result of flagrant Republican vote fixing in the 2018 election. The fraudsters were caught and now we have an excellent chance of flipping this seat to Blue.
You haven’t heard much about this election yet, but early voting has already begun and the results are guaranteed to be front page news when polls close on September 10.
This article explains why the race is so pivotal:
(BTW, now would be a perfect time to support the awesome Democratic contender, Dan McCready.)
The last U.S. House contest of 2018 and the first congressional test ahead of 2020 sits in North Carolina, where a re-do election in the state’s 9th Congressional District is teeing up a tough battle between Republicans, who are defending a district that President Donald Trump carried by 12 points in 2016, and Democrats hope will extend their 2018 rout by one.
A Democratic victory in the contest – between Marine veteran and small business owner Dan McCready and Republican state Sen. Dan Bishop – would not only be a major upset for Republicans in a district long considered out of reach for Democrats, but it could also potentially stifle the GOP’s hopes early of reclaiming a House majority in 2020.
For the GOP, the costly, competitive race is seen by some as a must-win after the resounding rebuke of their agenda and Democrats’ 40-seat gain in 2018.
A Republican loss “reinforces the dynamics coming out of the 2018 election that Republicans are increasingly struggling in urban and suburban districts,” said Eric Heberlig, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. "It’s a message that … districts that have traditionally been theirs, and they still should have the advantage in, are still breaking against them, and similar districts going into 2020 are at severe risk."
The race, the first congressional election to be redone since 1974, is in a district that borders South Carolina and currently extends from Charlotte’s suburbs to more rural areas east of the city after being redrawn in 2016 – representative of the exact areas Trump needs to win to secure his reelection.
“What would be different, say, about NC-09 – and many of the suburban districts we saw flip over in 2018 – is that this is the South,” Herberlig continued. “The South suburbs has traditionally been the heart of the Republican base.”
On Thursday, Trump tweeted his endorsement of Bishop and said he was “looking forward to soon being in North Carolina to hold a big rally for wonderful Dan Bishop,” signaling a late push by the president to buoy the state senator. The Trump campaign also emailed supporters Friday asking for donations to be split between Bishop and the president’s joint fundraising committee, Trump Make America Great Again Committee.
If Bishop edges out a win, the contest could provide a battle-tested pathway for GOP candidates seeking to win back those seats currently held by Democrats in Trump-won districts.
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The race is currently in the home stretch, with the general election slated for Sept. 10, after the North Carolina State Board of Elections never certified the 2018 results and voted unanimously earlier this year to hold a new election after a dramatic, months-long investigation into election fraud by a Republican operative hired by Harris. Democrats’ hopes of winning in 2019 are boosted by the fact that, even with the presence of fraud marring the results, McCready was only narrowly defeated by then-Republican candidate Mark Harris by 905 votes.
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The contest has seen more outside spending than any other race so far this year, except for the presidential election. With just a couple of weeks to go before the special election, at least $6 million of outside money has been either spent or secured by outside party committees, super PACs and politically active nonprofits, more than two-thirds of which is coming from the pro-Bishop side.
With so much Republican super PAC money flowing into the district, this is going to be a very hard fought race for Democrats. But if we can take this, it will prove to the nation that the Blue Wave is building into a tsunami for 2020! Go McCready! 
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Hallelujah! Let’s flip Joni Ernst’s Iowa Senate seat to Blue. I don’t know much about Franken, but I liked his ad and I like what I’ve read about him. There are others in the race, too, so we’ll see how things shape up in the coming months – it’s good to see some strong contenders challenging Ernst.
Is this seat flippable? Yes! Recall that before Ernst took the seat in 2015 it was occupied since 1985 by Democrat Tom Harkin. So there is precedent there. And Ernst’s reputation in Iowa has been badly tarnished by her unwavering support of Trump. – See the Politico article at the end of this post.
Michael Franken, a retired Navy admiral and Sioux Center native, announced Monday he will join the Democratic race for Senate in an effort to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst next November.
Franken released a video to the Des Moines Register highlighting his nearly 40 years in the Navy and his opposition to invading Iraq in 2002.
"I was trained to not bow to political pressure and to do what’s right," he says in the video, adding that he would take that mentality to Washington, D.C.
"Republicans are afraid to ever stand up to Donald Trump," he says. “And D.C. Democrats aren’t bold enough to confront the climate crisis, the health care industry and Wall Street. … Join me, because now, more than ever, Iowans need a senator who will go against the grain in Washington to do what’s right for Iowa.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkBgenyFs6w
There is a strong anti-Trump current running in Iowa right now and that’s hurting Ernst’s re-election chances:
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Per Axios - The battle lines have been drawn - looks like T is slipping in every battleground state -
Both R’s and Dems are vying for Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin…which were the pivotal states that got T elected by that small 70K+ vote count.
T’s campaign eying - Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico
the Dems - are hoping to go after Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Texas and Georgia.
President Trump’s net approval rating has plunged in every key battleground state since taking office in January 2017, according to Morning Consult’s tracking poll.
Why it matters: These are the states that Republicans and Democrats are vying for in 2020 and where, as of now, the campaigns think the presidential election will be decided, according to conversations with several Trump and Democratic campaign staffers.
In addition to the key purple states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — that both sides recognize as targets, the Trump campaign has its sights set on Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico, all states Trump lost in 2016, several campaign officials said.
- “We are trying to actively expand the map — aggressively,” one official said. “These 4 states in particular are all areas [Trump campaign manager Brad] Parscale is set on winning.”
- The official added that the campaign, which is planning to beef up its communications and rapid response team with additional hires before the end of the year, will soon be flooding these states with stories that don’t get a lot of attention at the national level — such as Trump’s work on opioids and the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal.
- “President Trump will again win the states he carried in 2016, and we believe there are a number that he can add to his column in 2020,” said Tim Murtaugh, director of communications for the campaign.
Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping they can pick up Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Texas and Georgia, per talks with campaign aides and Democratic strategists.
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