Some of the ways to consider what Muellerâs wrapping up may mean. This goes to the question about what about all the loose ends (culled from article - Stone prosecution, mystery Company A, Andrew Millerâs testimony, Jerome Corsi, George Naderâs cooperation, mysterious Seychelles Mtg w/ Erik Prince AND obstruction of Justice)
In some ways, that report helps illustrate just what we might expect in the hours, days, weeks, or months ahead as Mueller âwraps up.â In broad strokes, there are seven scenarios that âMueller wrapping upâ could really mean:
1. Mueller sends the attorney general a simple âdeclination letter,â telling Bill Barr that heâs concluded his work as special counsel; that the related grand jury has charged all identified crimes worthy of prosecution; and that there are no further cases to come. In some ways, a letter this simpleâwhich itself would represent a stunning anticlimax to the most politically charged investigation in modern American historyâwould be the most âMueller-like,â an understated and quiet end to the probe by a man who has always preferred to let his work speak for itself. If Mueller stops here, with no further meaty comment or additional charges, his probe will still rank as one of the most significant and eye-opening counterintelligence probes in our history, even though it would have failed to identify any direct âcollusionâ between Trump and Russia.
2. Mueller compiles a detailed âroad map,â providing Congress with an annotated bibliography or an index of sorts, outlining impeachment-worthy presidential âhigh crimes and misdemeanors.â Lawfareâs Benjamin Wittes and others [pried out](Lawfare recap of Watergate procedures) of the National Archives the analogous document that the Watergate special prosecutor created to help Congress charge President Nixon; itâs a detailed guide to evidence and grand jury testimony that could inform an impeachment trial. This might be the most compelling conclusion for Mueller if heâs abiding by the Justice Departmentâs policy that the sitting president canât be indicted, but he has identified criminal behavior by the president himself. It may be similarly attractive if Mueller has found compromising actions by the president that fall short of a chargeable federal crime, but that nonetheless represent political behavior or collusion that a healthy democracy cannot abide in its leaders or candidates.
3. Mueller authors a detailed novelistic narrative, akin to what the 9/11 Commission [wrote](911 commission Report) or what Ken Starr [authored](Starr Report on Clinton) at the conclusion of his Whitewater hearing, a document that could stretch to hundreds of pages and provide in rich, narrative detailâwith footnotes aplentyâthe be-all and end-all story of the Russiansâ impact on the 2016 election and the role that Trump associates may or may not have played in that. While this document is most similar to what many Americans have long believed the âMueller reportâ would look like, in some ways this seems the least likely outcome simply because itâs the most sweeping, which would go against Muellerâs inherent instincts.
4. He offers both a final round of âhisâ indictments, as well as a detailed report like in 2 or 3 above. Muellerâs [existing court filings]Wapo What Mueller knows & Isnât saying point to the idea that heâs considering or building toward a final overarching conspiracy indictment, one that connects Americans to the Russian attack on the electionâeither via WikiLeaks, Russian intelligence asset Konstantin Kilimnik, or other avenues. If this is the final outcome, itâs possible that Mueller already has told us precisely what heâs doing. After all, last summerâs GRU indictment began with the charge that âGRU officers ⌠knowingly and intentionally conspired with each other, and with persons known and unknown to the Grand Jury (collectively the âConspiratorsâ), to gain unauthorized access (to âhackâ) into the computers of US persons and entities involved in the 2016 US presidential election, steal documents from those computers, and stage releases of the stolen documents to interfere with the 2016 US presidential election.â That language could easily encompass Americans who participated, and since both the GRU indictment and the IRA indictment are âconspiracyâ cases, Mueller could wrap up by simply filling in some more of those âpersons known ⌠to the Grand Jury,â e.g., Americans who participated in the plot.
5. He offers a report, but not the report, something more like a progress report rather than a single, definitive one. This scenario could also include multiple reportsâconcerning perhaps not just the Russian probe but broader investigations into foreign influence in Washington. The Daily Beast hinted in December that Mueller was preparing a special report on Middle Eastern influence in the 2016 election, which might or might not be separate from the question of Russian influence in the campaign. This progress report could also announce thatâs he finished investigating the âBig Questionâ (the extent of Russiaâs role in the 2016 election) but that he intends to continue sorting through ancillary mattersâlike, for instance, the Roger Stone case, the House witness transcripts, or the foreign mystery defendantâfor perhaps months or even years.
6. He closes up shop but refers numerous active cases to other prosecutors âsimilarly ensuring that his probe lives on for years to come. Again, this could be because he feels like heâs answered his main chargeâRussiaâeven though heâs uncovered much ancillary criminality. Schiff has begun [hinting](WaPo Entering New phase of Muellerâs investigation) in recent weeks that he feels Mueller has been too narrow in his investigation, and that he intends to dive deep into Trump Worldâs money laundering and [past business deals](New Yorker -Schiffâs plan to obliterate Tâs red line.). The special counsel construct and mission was [never perfect](Atlantic - Special Prosecutor is not the answer/)âand Mueller, if the Ray Rice case is a guide, may indeed have interpreted his charge narrowly, leaving big and worthy questions to be examined by prosecutors in DC, New Jersey, New York, Virginia, and elsewhere. The US Attorney for the Southern District of New York, and counterparts in DC and Virginia, already have picked up at least half a dozen ancillary cases among them.
7. Mueller unseals one or more long-standing sealed indictments. The media and bloggers have [regularly tracked](ABC News - Sealed indictments DC docket) the abnormally large number of sealed indictments filed over the last year in DC federal court, the jurisdiction where Mueller has been worked, including 14 added between August and Novemberâa period where Mueller was theoretically âquietâ around the midterm electionâand four recent sealed indictments that seemed to parallel the Stone indictment. Whether any relate to Mueller remains to be seen, but in some ways the idea of piling up sealed indictments would have been the smartest way for Mueller to ensure that if he was fired, his case lived on.
While the seven scenarios above capture the broad outlines of what the end of his probe might look like, the truth is that he could choose some of one and a bit of another, meaning that there are almost infinite variations of how the case could unfold from him in the days ahead.
Itâs also worth noting that the Mueller probeâhowever it endsârepresents a shrinking percentage of Trumpâs potential legal troubles, as a total of at least 18 investigations surround Trumpâs world, led by at least seven different prosecutors and investigators. (Since WIREDâs original tally of 17 distinct investigations in December, weâve seen news of a state and federal probe looking at undocumented workers at Trumpâs New Jersey golf club.) And all of that doesnât count any of the work by the new Democratic-led House Intelligence Committee, the Senate Intelligence Committeeâs ongoing work, nor any of the other probes led by other House committees. Even a complete and total exoneration by Mueller on the Russia question would represent only a tiny ray of legal sunshine for the president.
Nevertheless, thereâs good reason to believe that Trump wonât get that total exoneration, as Muellerâs conspicuous silences in court filings on the collusion question seem to indicate heâs building toward something. Letâs remember that there have been two immutable truths thus far in the Mueller probe: First, every move has surprised us, both in timing and content; and second, every court filing has been more informed, detailed, and insightful than anyone imagined, and shown us that what we knew publicly was only the tip of the iceberg. Thereâs no reason to think that Muellerâs denouement will be anything different.
last yearâŚFeb 2018 about the same thingâŚwe knew heâs been communicating. But what was said is not known or was there more.
