Some St. Patty’s Day humor from Conan O’Brien in the Coronavirus pandemic.
Silly and well a little stupid, but heh, who couldn’t use a laugh?
Some St. Patty’s Day humor from Conan O’Brien in the Coronavirus pandemic.
Silly and well a little stupid, but heh, who couldn’t use a laugh?
Coronavirus’s exponential growith can be explained here. So many undetected cases can infect others when symptoms go undetected. Where someone might just feel a mild cold, and then act as the Coronavirus vector to others.
Scientists are saying “Undocumented infections were the source for 79% of the documented cases.”
Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.
The novel coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China (SARS-CoV2) at the end of 2019 quickly spread to all Chinese provinces and, as of 1 March 2020, to 58 other countries ( 1 , 2 ). Efforts to contain the virus are ongoing; however, given the many uncertainties regarding pathogen transmissibility and virulence, the effectiveness of these efforts is unknown.
The fraction of undocumented but infectious cases is a critical epidemiological characteristic that modulates the pandemic potential of an emergent respiratory virus ( 3 – 6 ). These undocumented infections often experience mild, limited or no symptoms and hence go unrecognized, and, depending on their contagiousness and numbers, can expose a far greater portion of the population to virus than would otherwise occur. Here, to assess the full epidemic potential of SARS-CoV2, we use a model-inference framework to estimate the contagiousness and proportion of undocumented infections in China during the weeks before and after the shutdown of travel in and out of Wuhan.
Scientists agree that social distancing works, that we have no idea of the potential numbers of infected, and it is going to take more time than we’d like.
Dr. Fauci had it right
“You’ve got to be almost overreacting a bit to keep up with it,” Fauci said of the restrictions being introduced by the federal government to contain the outbreak.
From these opinion writers who are in the science field
By Ezekiel J. Emanuel, Susan Ellenberg and Michael Levy
Dr. Emanuel is an oncologist and medical ethicist, Dr. Ellenberg is a biostatistician, and Dr. Levy is an epidemiologist at the University of Pennsylvania.
It took far too long for Americans to accept how serious the coronavirus is. Now that we’ve finally taken the necessary measures in many places to close schools, offices, restaurants and other businesses, people are asking: How soon will it all be over? Two weeks? Four weeks? When can we go back to normal?
Unfortunately, normal is a long way off. We need to be thinking in terms of months, not weeks. We need to stop picturing that ubiquitous “flatten the curve” chart and start imagining a roller coaster.
Social distancing works. As China, South Korea and other countries have demonstrated, it is possible to slow the spread of the virus and limit how many people are infected at one time. This will keep hospitals from being overwhelmed with patients, so that those who are sick can be treated competently and compassionately. It will also give researchers time to work on developing vaccines and medications that could reduce the severity of the virus and save lives.
No one knows for sure how long social distancing will have to last to reduce the spread to near zero. But if South Korea and China are appropriate exemplars, we’ll need to stay apart now for at least eight weeks, and maybe more. China locked down Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province on Jan. 23. Today, provincial officials are reporting few or no new cases of the virus. Just a few days ago, they closed the last of their 16 makeshift emergency hospitals. Consequently, restrictions are easing. Schools and offices are slowly opening. People are beginning to go out and see other people.
That timeline suggests that your kids are not going back to school on April 1. Nor are you returning to the office or catching a movie anytime soon. Plan for social distancing at least until mid- or late May, and be thankful if it eases off earlier.
What can we expect when Americans slowly emerge from their homes? Like much about this novel virus, we don’t know for sure. A likely scenario is that there will be subsequent waves of the disease. That’s what happened in Denver in the 1918-19 influenza pandemic and in Toronto during the 2003 SARS outbreak. Over the next few months, South Korea, China and other countries will generate some relevant evidence to show how this might play out.
Nevada is ordering the closure of all casinos.
What happened in Las Vegas no longer does.
Out comes the R’s answer to not letting the public fall flat in these desperate times. The offer Sen. Romney made yesterday rings true…give everyone $1000, or those who make under $1 million. Thanks to Andrew Yang’s push during the Democratic Presidential run up contest - this maybe a temporary remedy.
T 'n co looked at the staggering numbers of potential fallout from a spreading pandemic, and the fact he has to act quickly to mollify an angry America who knows he’s not done enough. (minus his 40%).
Not sure how the overall economy will react in the long term…definitely recession, job loss and a US population fallen to it’s knees with this raging pandemic, something we have not seen since the Spanish Flu in 1918.
“We want to go big,” Mr. Trump said at a news conference at the White House, adding that he had instructed Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, to introduce measures that would provide more immediate economic support over the payroll tax cut holiday that he had been promoting.
Mr. Mnuchin told Republican senators later Tuesday that the Trump administration wanted Congress to infuse about $850 billion in additional stimulus to prop up the economy. While Mr. Trump had signaled that he wanted the payroll tax to be the centerpiece of that effort, it faced bipartisan opposition in Congress, and Mr. Mnuchin said time was of the essence.
“We’re looking at sending checks to Americans immediately,” Mr. Mnuchin said at the White House.
Later, at a lunch across from the Capitol, the Treasury secretary privately told Republican senators that he envisioned the direct payments covering two weeks of pay and said they could total $250 billion, according to two people familiar with the discussion who described it on the condition of anonymity.
The goal would be to get the checks out by the end of April, Mr. Mnuchin told the senators, with additional checks possible if the national emergency persists, the people said.
Mr. Mnuchin declined publicly to put a dollar figure on the direct payments, telling reporters only that “it is a big number.”
@MissJava - Can you move to Coronavirus please? Many thx!
Seems like something we should definitely do.
“We could increase production five-fold in a 90- to 120-day period,” says Chris Kiple, chief executive of Ventec Life Systems, a Bothell, Wash. firm that makes ventilators used in hospitals, homes and ambulances. He’d have to tool up production lines, train assemblers and testers and get parts. Accelerating the parts delivery might be the toughest task, he says.
The ventilator industry is getting a burst of desperate orders from China and Italy. The U.S. hasn’t seen that yet, although manufacturers are bracing for it. “The time for action by the government is now,” says Kiple. “[Covid] is most likely to get worse next fall.”
@MissJava Would you put in Coronavirus please? Thanks!
Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline -
@Windthin - Thanks for the tracking sites – really informative! It’s good to get these from a trusted source like you since I understand that there are some malicious fake sites out there. I think you even posted something about that, but can’t find it now – here’s a report on fake Covid sites from Business Insider.
Speaking of “bookmarkable resources,” this has been my go to Covid update site for a couple weeks. I can vouch for it. Have been checking their numbers against the news and they’re consistently accurate. I like that they always provide a graphic version of the numbers they post. Also that they have no political agenda - at least none that I can discern. Just the facts, M’am. But if anyone finds any issues with this site, please post here.
This will take you to their Coronavirus home page:
If you then click on “View by Country,” you’ll be taken to a page where you can click on a USA link in the list of countries.
Here’s a couple recent graphs from the USA section. On the live site, if you hover over a data point, the exact number for that point is displayed (great feature).
The trend in the “Daily New Cases” graph is concerning. Almost doubled in 1 day. Let’s hope that the social distancing that’s going on will start to have an effect soon. However, we still do not have a clear picture of how many cases there actually are since our testing has been so abysmal. As more testing rolls out, we’re going to discover many pre-existing cases that we didn’t know about so that’s going to bump the numbers – maybe that’s already happening in this graph.
Check this video out with regard to what kinds of misinformation that Fox News has been spouting, and their about face all together to say ‘please take this Coronavirus seriously.’
Shamefully glaring as to how lockstep they are with the Administration.
Washington Post video
The New York Times was able to link us to the Federal plan to COVID-19 response including their anticipation of it being an 18-month situation and far worse fall out than we had previously known. Here are a few parts of it, including a messaging plan and what the Federal plan’s assumptions - key to understanding their scope.
A federal government plan to combat the coronavirus warned policymakers last week that a pandemic “will last 18 months or longer” and could include “multiple waves,” resulting in widespread shortages that would strain consumers and the nation’s health care system.
The 100-page plan, dated Friday, the same day President Trump declared a national emergency, laid out a grim prognosis for the spread of the virus and outlined a response that would activate agencies across the government and potentially employ special presidential powers to mobilize the private sector.
Among the “additional key federal decisions” listed among the options for Mr. Trump was invoking the Defense Production Act of 1950, a Korean War-era law that authorizes a president to take extraordinary action to force American industry to ramp up production of critical equipment and supplies such as ventilators, respirators and protective gear for health care workers.
“Shortages of products may occur, impacting health care, emergency services, and other elements of critical infrastructure,” the plan warned. “This includes potentially critical shortages of diagnostics, medical supplies (including PPE and pharmaceuticals), and staffing in some locations.” P.P.E. refers to personal protective equipment.
The plan continued: “State and local governments, as well as critical infrastructure and communications channels, will be stressed and potentially less reliable. These stresses may also increase the challenges of getting updated messages and coordinating guidance to these jurisdictions directly.”
Using plain language and accessible formats, provide timely messaging with a focus foreshadowing potential mitigation measures in a manner to mitigate the risk of causing unnecessary alarm . The public will need to be assured and informed about the types of medical countermeasures (e . g., vaccines, therapeutics) and societal measures the government is developing and recommending to maintain the highest level of health and safety for the American public . Other focus areas should include amplifying the importance of good public health hygiene and infection control (akin to flu mitigation measures), empowerment of state and local public health services in preparation for future phases, and continued promotion of everything the USG is doing to support Americans dealing with the virus and slow the spread to
I like maps and graphs and charts that make things easy to track and understand. Abstract numbers often don’t hit people the same.
Here is the thread of Coronavirus resources I’ve built up during this crisis, including a number of the big tracking sites.
Am I the only one noticing that NYT articles on the coronavirus are not hitting the paywall like others do?
I seriously hate every Republican in the Senate right now, but Rand Paul is up there at the top of the list for this sort of mind-boggling atrocity.
Not sure…I know other papers like Seattle Times I believe is offering free coverage and dropped their paywall in light of this pandemic.
My NYT subscription is a twofer - support local radio station KCrW/they offer NYT.
Here comes the daily brief from T 'n Co…here’s some of what they may offer.
Another excellent video showing the timeline of Trump lies:
This is an absolutely devastating account by David Lat about his experience right now with the coronavirus. I will admit, it frightens me, as he’s my age but far healthier and I have two major risk factors.
Click on this WaPo article (above and below) to hear the double-speak video from T about
We are listening…
In the time of the #coronavirus, our American aversion to face masks may need to be re-examined.
Dr. Birx on the #TrumpPressConference just now seriously expressed amazement at the millennial for their ability to skip from level 3 to level 7 in video games. So she’s never watched “The Wizard”.
Trump just asserted that as long as he is president, the virus won’t come from our soldiers. Which makes no sense at all as a statement.
T 'n Co’s Coronavirus presentation and Q & A’s
Why has there only been 59K tests done.
rebuttal from T - China says it is the US Army which brought the virus to Wuhan
Trump is clearly feeling better again, he’s back to gaslighting.