I may be crying a little here.
I may be crying a little here.
Trump on campaign defense with core elements of his base
Heading into the crucial summer stretch of his re-election campaign, the president’s support is declining among key groups that helped deliver his 2016 victory.
WASHINGTON — Heading into the crucial summer stretch of his re-election campaign, President Donald Trump is grappling with declining support among key groups that helped deliver his 2016 victory, putting rising pressure on his campaign and the White House to shore up his base.
With just over five months to Election Day, a string of polls this month shows an erosion of support among voters whom Republican strategists had expected would be rock solid behind the president at this point, including seniors, non-college-educated white voters and evangelicals.
Trump has consistently trailed former Vice President Joe Biden in national polling this year, but his campaign advisers had long downplayed those numbers, pointing to the consistency of his message and arguing that his base was sticking with him. They spent time traveling to states Trump lost and targeting groups he was weakest with, such as black voters, to try to erode support for Biden, the apparent Democratic nominee.
And while it’s a long way until November, the sliding enthusiasm among the president’s base has been noted by Trump’s aides, with focus increasingly turning to efforts to reach those groups directly, such as last week’s White House event targeting seniors and recent presidential swings to Rust Belt states where white working-class support is critical to his fall chances.
“The significance of these results are not that the numbers have fallen and he may lose them in November, but the fact that he will spend valuable time and effort in rebuilding his support with these people,” said Democratic pollster Peter Hart. “It will drive him that much harder in working on his base and rejuvenating his support with rallies.”
Key to Trump’s 2016 victory were white male voters, particularly those without college degrees, among whom Trump outperformed past Republican presidential candidates. The president has spent much of the past three years targeting the group with his policies and his messaging, touting trade deals with China and Mexico, strict immigration measures and progress on a southern border wall.
Still, Trump’s support from those voters has dropped significantly since 2016, when he got 71 percent of the white non-college male vote. Now, 64 percent of white men without college degrees said they plan to vote for Trump, according to a survey released last week by Quinnipiac University. A Fox News poll last week found even less support, with Trump drawing support from 58 percent of the group.
There has been a similar trend among white voters with college educations. Trump’s support from white men with college degrees has dropped from 53 percent to 44 percent. Among white college-educated women, it fell from 44 percent to 29 percent in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey in April.
Trump’s support has also declined among a group that had been one of the firmest pillars of the Republican Party — evangelical voters. While he still has a commanding lead among that group, it, too, has narrowed. In a national poll by Fox News this month, 70 percent of evangelical voters said they planned to vote for Trump. That compares to 81 percent in 2016, according to exit polling.
From March to April, Trump’s approval among white evangelicals fell by 11 points, the Public Religion Research Institute found. Trump also dropped by 12 points among white Catholics and 18 points among mainline Protestants, the survey found.
Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh dismissed the poll numbers, saying the campaign’s internal data show the president “in solid shape in all of our key states.” The campaign told surrogates this month that its internal polling in 17 states it is targeting showed Trump closing the gap against Biden, from a 9-point deficit three weeks ago to tied at 48 percent, according to an email obtained by NBC News.
“Americans know his record on building a great economy and know he is the one to lead us to that position again,” Murtaugh said. “Evangelicals know that he is the best pro-life president in history.”
But public polling has the trends hurting Trump in the must-win battleground states, where his support has dropped to 43 percent from 50 percent in 2016, according to April NBC/WSJ surveys.
Trump’s weakening appeal with seniors following his response to the coronavirus is hurting him particularly hard in Florida, where 21 percent of voters are 65 and older. In 2016, Trump won the senior vote in the state by 17 points over Hillary Clinton, but he leads Biden among that group by just 4 points, according to a Florida Atlantic University poll this month.
In a separate survey, Biden held a 10-point lead over Trump among seniors, according to an April poll of Floridians by Quinnipiac University.
The president’s campaign advisers have also grown increasingly concerned about Arizona, once a solidly Republican state viewed as a must-win for 2020, where Trump is being hurt by his falling support among suburban voters and low approval among Hispanic voters, a White House official said. Trump won Arizona by 3 points, but in 2018, four Democrats won statewide office. Republican Sen. Martha McSally, a Trump ally, is trailing former astronaut Mark Kelly, the Democrat, in the state’s Senate contest.
“More than ever, this is going to be a race won and lost in the margins,” the official said.
Trump traveled to Arizona his month to tour a plant making protective masks in his first visit outside Washington, D.C., since campaign events were canceled in March amid the coronavirus. Since then, he’s made stops in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and he traveled to Florida this week for a rocket launch.
In Washington, the White House has already been targeting its messaging toward trying to win back some of those groups. Last week, Trump said he wanted all churches opened immediately and threatened to “override” governors who kept restrictions in place. On Tuesday, the White House held an event titled Protecting Seniors with Diabetes, where the president announced a plan to lower the price of insulin and used the moment to attack Biden.
“I hope the seniors are going to remember it,” Trump said at the Rose Garden event.
Bring it on…create ads that speak to the R’s, help dissuade them from voting for T, even if they might be party loyalists.
Now, a new effort called Republican Voters Against Trump is hoping to chip away at Mr. Trump’s support from white, college-educated Republican voters in the suburbs, hoping a more surgical approach will help to elect Joseph R. Biden Jr., his expected Democratic opponent.
The new group is set to begin a $10 million digital and television advertising campaign that will use personal stories of conservative voters giving voice to their deep — and sometimes brand-new — dissatisfaction with the president.
The group will test the premise of whether there are really any persuadable voters left in a deeply tribal moment in American politics, in which views of Mr. Trump, both positive and negative, have only been hardened over the past four years.
“What was missing in 2016 was a real concerted effort to take the voices of real people who have deep reservations about Trump, but who identify as Republicans, and allow them to be the messengers,” said Sarah Longwell, a lifelong conservative and a prominent Never Trump Republican.
The new initiative is the brainchild of Ms. Longwell; Bill Kristol, the conservative writer; and Tim Miller, a former top aide to former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida. Together, Ms. Longwell and Mr. Kristol have also worked on an initiative called Republicans for the Rule of Law, which has begun its own ad blitz against Mr. Trump.
Powerful…my friend from KY is so behind Amy McGrath, and sent this today. Very polarized state.
An estimated 860,000 people were set to become U.S. citizens — with many also expected to become first-time voters — before the coronavirus pandemic halted naturalization ceremonies.
The cruelty is the point… and so is rigging elections for the GOP.
Biden Ads v. T ads -
Here are a couple of examples of what each camp is doing. And it is fair to say that all these ads will be hitting below the belt…and ugly. But in the name of politics and a November win, they are what is necessary to get Biden in office.
Video from Rule of Law Republicans - T is not a King (aired on Fox)
Trump ads -
link within article (will be on FB)
President Trump’s campaign posted a meme on Facebook and Snapchat that includes Joe Biden’s campaign logo superimposed onto a coffin, in the latest indication of how the Trump campaign plans to utilize memes to its advantage in a new world of campaign advertising.
The video begins with a clip of Biden’s controversial “ain’t black” comments, which made headlines last week (the former vice president has since apologized for the remarks).
T video clip here
The video, so far, has been played over 4.6 million times on Trump’s Facebook page and was originally created by two journalists who work at conservative news outlets: Daily Caller reporter Jordan Lancaster and Human Events managing editor Ian Miles Cheong.
Leaked tapes with Biden speaking to Ukraine president Poroshenko from a Ukrainian source Derkach with strings attached. When Rudy was in town (Ukraine) he dug some of this up. Expect some leakage coming from this source.
Confirmed ties comes from former DOD officer - Michael Carpenter below.
A Ukrainian lawmaker who met with Rudolph W. Giuliani late last year released recordings of private phone calls several years ago between Vice President Joe Biden and Petro Poroshenko, then Ukraine’s president, in a new broadside against the presumptive Democratic nominee for U.S. president that has raised questions about foreign interference in the 2020 election.
Andriy Derkach, an independent member of Ukraine’s parliament who previously aligned with a pro-Russian faction, said at a news conference in Kyiv on Tuesday that he had received the tapes — which consist of edited fragments of phone conversations Biden and Poroshenko had while still in office — from “investigative journalists.” He alleged they were made by Poroshenko.
Derkach has past links to Russian intelligence. He attended the Dzerzhinsky Higher School of the KGB in Moscow. His father served as a KGB officer for decades before becoming head of independent Ukraine’s intelligence service in the late 1990s. His father was fired from that post amid a scandal over a Ukrainian journalist who was kidnapped and murdered.
Of course, Republicans green lighted this operation by not removing the President after he was impeached.
New statement from Vice President Biden
New ad from The Lincoln Project called The Flag of Treason
Kris Kobach Is Back, and a Kansas Senate Seat May Be Up for Grabs
Mr. Kobach’s polarizing presence in a race in a reliably Republican stronghold has party leaders worried that Kansas will become a high-stakes battleground for control of the Senate.
By way of testing potential VP candidates, looks like definitely Klobachar is out, due to her record in MN regarding police issues, but plain as day, looks like Rep Demmings and Sen Harris have come to the forefront because of their social justice leadership and strengths.
To me this looks like a big tell…especially with Clyborn recommending them in these very tense times.
Demings and Harris, who are both black, have better records when it comes to social justice, according to some progressive activists and Democratic insiders who argue that black women have a better understanding of the scourge of police brutality. Their law enforcement credentials, some of those Democrats contend, must be viewed in the historic context in which they served as leaders.
“So Val and Kamala have law enforcement backgrounds and we were proud of them when they were able to pierce those veils. Now you’re telling me we gotta hold it against them?” Clyburn said. “No, I don’t think that’s going to have an adverse impact on them.”
While Clyburn said he would prefer a black running mate, he and top Biden campaign officials stress that Klobuchar is still in the running, that she’s highly qualified and that no has been ruled out because of a law enforcement background.
But for Biden — who has a list of about a dozen possible female running mates and has said he plans to name his pick around Aug. 1 — the calculus for selecting his running mate has been altered in recent weeks. A series of incidents has elevated racial issues and placed them at the center of political debate in an election where his chances of winning are contingent on his ability to generate enthusiasm among African Americans, the Democratic Party’s most loyal base.
“A racist campaign tried to keep me out of Congress. I’m proof of what can happen when we go to the polls.”
“I know how painful racism is. But we can’t give up on voting.”
-Antonio Delgado, Democrat, #NY19
Steve King got PRIMARIED!
The most racist man in the House of Representatives will soon be gone!
I know there’s still a huge pile of white supremacy still to wade thru but holy hell does this make me pretty happy.