“Psst, Bob. Why is she here?”
“Don’t know, Jill. Just roll with it. Nothing makes sense any longer.”
3 Likes
15 West Point Cadets Test Positive for Coronavirus
More than 1,100 cadets returned to campus ahead of President Trump’s commencement speech in mid-June.
3 Likes
As Trump touts increased production, coronavirus swabs made during his Maine factory tour will be tossed in the trash
GUILFORD, Maine – President Donald Trump traveled to Maine Friday to tour a facility that makes medical swabs used for coronavirus testing, but the swabs manufactured in the background during his visit will ultimately be thrown in the trash, the company said.
4 Likes
Satellite data suggests coronavirus may have hit China earlier: Researchers
Dramatic spikes in auto traffic around major hospitals in Wuhan last fall suggest the novel coronavirus may have been present and spreading through central China long before the outbreak was first reported to the world, according to a new Harvard Medical School study.
Using techniques similar to those employed by intelligence agencies, the research team behind the study analyzed commercial satellite imagery and “observed a dramatic increase in hospital traffic outside five major Wuhan hospitals beginning late summer and early fall 2019,” according to Dr. John Brownstein, the Harvard Medical professor who led the research.
Brownstein, an ABC News contributor, said the traffic increase also “coincided with” elevated queries on a Chinese internet search for "certain symptoms that would later be determined as closely associated with the novel coronavirus."
Though Brownstein acknowledged the evidence is circumstantial, he said the studymakes for an important new data point in the mystery of COVID-19’s origins.
“Something was happening in October,” said Brownstein, the chief innovation officer at Boston Children’s Hospital and director of the medical center’s Computational Epidemiology Lab. “Clearly, there was some level of social disruption taking place well before what was previously identified as the start of the novel coronavirus pandemic.”
October? Whoa 
3 Likes
Cross-posting
4 Likes
Shutdowns prevented 60 million coronavirus infections in the U.S., study finds
Shutdown orders prevented about 60 million novel coronavirus infections in the United States and 285 million in China, according to a research study published Monday that examined how stay-at-home orders and other restrictions limited the spread of the contagion.
A separate study from epidemiologists at Imperial College London estimated the shutdowns saved about 3.1 million lives in 11 European countries, including 500,000 in the United Kingdom, and dropped infection rates by an average of 82 percent, sufficient to drive the contagion well below epidemic levels
The two reports, published simultaneously Monday in the journal Nature, used completely different methods to reach similar conclusions.They suggest that the aggressive and unprecedented shutdowns, which caused massive economic disruptions and job losses, were effective at halting the exponential spread of the novel coronavirus.
Today’s numbers for reference 
4 Likes
No-bid Florida COVID contracts flow to DeSantis donors
4 Likes
Putting this right here…
When can you do many things you used to do without thinking, but now because of Coronavirus? Well, it does depend.
Many epidemiologists are already comfortable going to the doctor, socializing with small groups outside or bringing in mail, despite the coronavirus. But unless there’s an effective vaccine or treatment first, it will be more than a year before many say they will be willing to go to concerts, sporting events or religious services. And some may never greet people with hugs or handshakes again.
When epidemiologists said they expect to do these activities in their personal lives, assuming the pandemic and response unfold as they expect
Activities they said they might start doing soon
This summer 3 to 12 mos. 1 yr.+ Never again Bring in mail without precautions (n = 379) 64 16 17 3 See a doctor for a nonurgent appointment (507) 60 29 11 <1 Vacation overnight within driving distance (372) 56 26 18 <1 Get a haircut at a salon or barber shop (485) 41 39 19 1 Later in the next year
This summer 3 to 12 mos. 1 yr.+ Never again Attend a small dinner party (n = 509) 32 46 21 <1 Hike or picnic outdoors with friends (506) 31 41 27 <1 Send kids to school, camp or day care (304) 30 55 15 <1 Work in a shared office (434) 27 54 18 1 Send children on play dates (272) 23 47 29 1 Ride a subway or a bus (408) 20 40 39 1 Visit elderly relative or friend in their home (485) 20 41 39 <1 Travel by airplane (512) 20 44 37 <1 Eat at a dine-in restaurant (506) 16 56 28 <1 Exercise at a gym or fitness studio (406) 14 42 40 4 Maybe a year or more
This summer 3 to 12 mos. 1 yr.+ Never again Attend a wedding or a funeral (n = 501) 17 41 42 <1 Hug or shake hands when greeting a friend (503) 14 39 42 6 Go out with someone you don’t know well (363) 14 42 42 2 Attend a church or other religious service (220) 13 43 43 2 Stop routinely wearing a face covering (513) 7 40 52 1 Attend a sporting event, concert or play (489) 3 32 64 1 Largest values in each group are highlighted. Figures are rounded.
These are the personal opinions of a group of 511 epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists who were asked by The New York Times when they expect to resume 20 activities of daily life, assuming that the pandemic and the public health response to it unfold as they expect.
Their answers are not guidelines for the public, and incorporate respondents’ individual life circumstances, risk tolerance and expectations about when there will be widespread testing, contact tracing, treatment and vaccination for Covid-19. They said it’s these things that will determine their actions, because the virus sets the timeline. “The answers have nothing to do with calendar time,” said Kristi McClamroch of the University at Albany.
Still, as policymakers lift restrictions and protests break out nationwide over police brutality, epidemiologists must make their own decisions about what they will do, despite the uncertainty — just like everyone else. They are more likely, though, to be immersed in the data about Covid-19 and have training on the dynamics of infectious disease and how to think about risk.
They mostly agreed that outdoor activities and small groups were safer than being indoors or in a crowd, and that masks would be necessary for a long time.
“Fresh air, sun, socialization and a healthy activity will be just as important for my mental health as my physical well-being,” said Anala Gossai, a scientist at Flatiron Health, a health technology firm, who said she would socialize outdoors this summer.
Some said they would refrain from nearly all of the 20 activities until a vaccine for the virus had been widely distributed. Others said they would wait for a vaccine to do the indoor activities on the list.
“As much as I hate working at home, I think that working in a shared indoor space is the most dangerous thing we do,” said Sally Picciotto of the University of California, Berkeley, one of the 18 percent of respondents who said they expected to wait at least a year before returning to the office.
The responses were collected the last week of May, before the death of George Floyd in police custody spurred protests across the country. These mass gatherings are likely to cause a rise in cases, some epidemiologists said. “There’s a risk, and it’s hitting the communities hit hardest by the pandemic, and it’s heartbreaking,” said Andrew Rowland of the University of New Mexico.
For some of the activities, there was significant disagreement.
Some said hair salons were relatively safe — they aren’t usually crowded and have hygiene requirements — while others said a haircut had a high risk because of the face-to-face contact. Forty-one percent would go now or this summer, but 19 percent plan to wait at least a year. One-third said they would attend a dinner party at a friend’s home this summer (many specified outdoors with appropriate distancing), while one-fifth said they would wait more than a year, potentially until there was a vaccine.
Epidemiologists say they are making decisions based on publicly available data for their region on things like infections and testing. Before choosing whether to do an activity, they might evaluate whether people are wearing masks, whether physical distancing is possible and whether there are alternative ways to do it. Because there is a chance of a second wave of infections, they say they may become less comfortable with certain activities over time, not more.
Like everyone, they are also weighing practical considerations. Those who are required to go to an office or hospital every day are doing so, even if they think it would be safer to remain home. The need for child or elder care forces difficult choices. Activities that seem optional, like attending a concert, are easier to avoid. More than 70 percent of respondents said they or someone in their household was at high risk of serious illness or death from the disease.
Melissa Sharp, who recently received her doctorate, will soon fly to Europe to begin a fellowship. But for now, while she is staying in Florida with family, including high-risk relatives, she has been extraordinarily careful, “cocooning” and avoiding activities that she considers less risky than flying.
One of her quarantine hobbies, she said, has been epidemiology-inspired needlepoint: “It says, ‘Well, it depends,’ because that’s really our slogan.”
The scientists are weighing coronavirus risks against the benefits of certain activities, including emotional well-being. While both funerals and weddings carry risk by bringing together large groups of people, several said they would prioritize attending a funeral. Some are choosing to socialize or send children to camp because of benefits like mental health, education or household harmony.
Ms. Sharp said she’d consider dating after a period of confinement. “I’m young and single, and a gal can only last so long in the modern world,” she said.
For Robert A. Smith of the American Cancer Society, a haircut might be worth the risk: “It really is a trade-off between risky behavior and seeing yourself in the mirror with a mullet.”
Sometimes, their professional expertise and personal lives are colliding. Ayaz Hyder, of Ohio State University, said he was advising his mosque on how to reopen and to conduct Friday prayers. “Balancing between public health practices and religious obligations has been very eye-opening and humbling for me as an academic,” he said.
Many epidemiologists said they may never greet people the same way again. Forty-two percent of the sample said they would not hug or shake hands for more than a year, and 6 percent said they would never do either again.
“The worst casualty of the epidemic,” said Eduardo Franco of McGill University in Montreal, is the “loss of human contact.”
Others lamented it less: “Always hated those particular needless exchanges of pathogens and unwanted touching,” said Carl V. Phillips, who runs Epiphi Consulting.
About 6,000 epidemiologists were invited to participate in the survey, which was circulated to the membership of the Society for Epidemiologic Research and to individual scientists. Some said they were uncomfortable making predictions based on time because they didn’t want to guess the timing of certain treatments or infection data. “Our concern is that your multiple choice options are based only on calendar time,” 301 epidemiologists wrote in a letter. “This limits our ability to provide our expert opinions about when we will feel safe enough to stop social distancing ourselves.”
More than three-quarters of the panel said their daily work was connected with the Covid-19 pandemic in some way. Nearly three-quarters work in academia, 10 percent work in government, and the remainder work for nonprofit groups, private companies or as health care providers.
Surveys of ordinary Americans show that many people without epidemiology training also think it will be months or longer before many common activities can become routine again. A recent survey from Morning Consult found that more than a quarter of Americans would not visit a shopping mall for more than six months, and around a third would not go to a gym, movie or concert.
One thing the epidemiologists seemed to agree on was that even when they return to normal activities, they will do them differently for a long time, like socializing with friends outside or attending worship services online. A majority said it would be more than a year before they stopped routinely wearing a mask outside their homes.
People often ask when things will return to normal, said T. Christopher Bond, an associate director at Bristol Myers Squibb. “At first I told them: ‘The world has changed and will be different for a long time. This is the crisis of our lifetime and we need to embrace it,’” he said. “But that depressed them. So now I say, ‘Well, we know more every day.’”
Additional comments from epidemiologists on life and social distancing
On school, camp and day care:
NowSummerFallWinterNext spring+1 year
7%20%9%15%40%10%
“With a young child, I think the developmental risks outweigh the risk of getting sick with Covid.”
John C. Nelson, Precision for Medicine Would do it this summer
“Ideally, I’d wait until a vaccine were available, but the realities of working will probably mean that we will have to send them back when school reopens.”
Katherine Reeves, University of Massachusetts-Amherst Would wait until fall
“Willing to take more risks with this, even though it’s not a low-risk activity, as it is more ‘necessary’ than other, lower-risk activities.”
Christina Mair, University of Pittsburgh Would do it this summer
“This is a dreaded question. My kids desperately need their friends and a formal learning environment, but I don’t necessarily want to send them!”
Alicia Zagel, Children’s Minnesota Research Institute Would wait until fall
“We do not understand enough about the longer-term consequences of Covid-19 infection in children.”
Alicia Riley, University of California-San Francisco Would wait more than a year
On sporting events, concerts and plays:
NowSummerFallWinterNext spring+1 yearNever
8%2%16%64%8%1%<1%
“To me, this is a luxury and I can wait a long time until people can safely come together to enjoy it. That said, I can and will continue to support arts programs as if I was attending with donations.”
Joseph Wagner, U.S. Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine Would wait more than a year
“These are some of the highest-risk activities and probably attract more risk-embracing people. The addition of alcohol or drugs makes these activities too risky for me to consider anytime soon.”
Vivian Towe, Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute Would wait more than a year
“This is as much about feelings of social responsibility as about personal infection risk. Large-scale gatherings are a contact tracing nightmare and seem like they should be shut down until we have a really good sense of what’s safe/how to screen people.”
Steve Mooney, University of Washington Would wait more than a year
“I would do this IF social distancing was enforced and everyone attending was required to wear a mask.”
Tammie Nelson, Marion County Public Health Department Would wait until fall
On hugs and handshakes:
NowSummerFallWinterNext spring+1 yearNever
13%7%16%42%11%6%6%
“I would hug my friend today if she needed a hug. If my friend would benefit from a hug, I would hug her.”
Haley Holmer, World Health Organization Would do it now
“Real epidemiologists don’t shake hands. ”
T. Christopher Bond, Bristol Myers Squibb Said they would never do this again
“I think the handshake is dead. I would likely hug a few personal contacts in the distant future as a greeting where appropriate.”
Priyanka Gogna, Queen’s University Said they would never do this again
“If we have a good vaccine, perhaps the first thing I’d do is more hugs.”
Christina Ludema, Indiana University Would wait more than a year
“I prefer to greet people with a traditional greeting either with hands in a namaskar or in the Lozi tribe’s traditional greeting of clapping hands together.”
Ramya Kumar, Zambart Project Would do it now
On weddings and funerals:
NowSummerFallWinterNext spring+1 yearNever
11%8%19%42%11%<1%9%
“It makes no sense to risk people’s lives for a celebration. What a tragedy that would be.”
Claudia A. Salinas, Eli Lilly and Company Would wait more than a year
“Weddings – not until there is a vaccine. Funerals – if it was someone very close to me and the service was small, I might consider going.”
Nicole Frascino, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Would wait more than a year
“Depends on whose funeral. I have missed because of Covid my dad’s funeral and in a way I still regret it.”
Raluca Ionescu-Ittu, Analysis Group Inc. Would wait more than a year
“Sharing such moments is how we get to keep our humanity. I won’t refrain from being there for family and friends as long as we take extra preventive measures.”
Martine El Bejjani, American University of Beirut Would do it this summer
On airplanes:
NowSummerFallWinterNext spring+1 year
15%12%16%37%13%7%
“Unless I have absolutely no choice, I wouldn’t travel by the airplane anytime soon.”
Lilia Lukowsky, U.S. Department of Veteran’s Affairs Would wait more than a year
“A flying tube of germs.”
Chelsea Richard, South Carolina First Steps Would wait until winter
“Planning all local vacations in the future.”
Ellen Chang, Exponent Would wait more than a year
“Precautions appear adequate.”
Randall Reves, University of Colorado Would do it now
“I would bring a blanket or sheet to sit on, my own food and water, multiple masks (in case one gets uncomfortable), gloves, hand sanitizer, and wipes.”
Michaela George, George Washington University Would do it now
On meetings with new people:
NowSummerFallWinterNext spring+1 yearNever
10%8%16%42%16%2%6%
“Life has to go on at some point. While I am not dating currently, I am a 35-year-old woman. I wouldn’t want to put my personal life on hold for more than a few months when there is no end in sight for this pandemic.”
Tali Elfassy, University of Miami Would do it this summer
“This pandemic, dissertation and the state of online dating have really put a damper on my love life.”
Kendra D. Sims, Oregon State University Would do it this summer
“If I’m able to send my kids back to school in the fall, then I should be able to send myself out in the world to meet other people if necessary!”
Marilyn Tseng, Cal Poly Would wait until winter
“This is tough because dating seems less optional than, say, going to a play or the gym. There are biological clocks to worry about. So I could imagine this being safe now, ONLY IF you could be assured that the person has self-isolated for at least two weeks or more and both of you wore a mask and avoided physical contact, and the meet-up were outdoors.”
Alicia Riley, University of California-San Francisco Would do it this summer
On when to stop wearing masks:
NowSummerFallWinterNext spring+1 yearNever
11%3%21%52%7%1%4%
“When the coronavirus pandemic is over, and there aren’t any other virulent respiratory pathogens circulating, I will consider not wearing a mask in some situations. I will probably always wear a mask on a plane from now on.”
Jean Brender, Texas A&M University Would wait more than a year
“Would love for it to be sooner. I freaking hate wearing masks.”
Steve Mooney, University of Washington Would wait until winter
“It’s hard to know when it will be the right time to stop face-covering, but given it is such a small inconvenience for notable gains, I find it hard to believe that anyone is in a hurry to end this practice.”
Amy Padula, University of California-San Francisco Would wait more than a year
On visiting the elderly:
NowSummerFallWinterNext spring+1 yearNever
12%11%15%39%13%<1%9%
“It’s a long time to go without hugging my mother. But she is probably at high risk.”
Sally Picciotto, University of California, Berkeley Would wait more than a year
“This is the most difficult one.”
Clermont E. Dionne, Université Laval, Québec, Canada Would wait more than a year
“While the elderly are at increased risk of severe illness from Covid-19, we need to also be aware of the real risk of loneliness.”
Heather Limper, Vanderbilt University Medical Center Would do it this summer
“I feel most uncomfortable about this decision because it means I will have decided that the risk to them is worth it so that I can see them. ”
Mercedes Carnethon, Northwestern University Would wait until spring
2 Likes
The question is why…and how to keep funding these programs.
The Washington Post: Top Stories | Food banks and other key programs have received a fraction of allotted coronavirus money, angering some lawmakers
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/06/08/cares-act-unspent-money-congress/
The Cares Act directed $850 million for food banks, but less than $300 million has been sent out so far, according to Democratic staff members on the Senate Appropriations Committee. That’s despite unprecedented demand, with the number of people served at food banks increasing by more than 50 percent from a year ago, according to a recent survey by the nonprofit group Feeding America.
Similarly, Congress appropriated $9 billion in March for the Community Development Block Grant and Emergency Solutions Grant programs, which fund health facilities, child care centers, and services for seniors and homeless people, among other things. Only about $250 million of that money has been obligated.
In another example, $100 million dedicated specifically to help nursing homes certify compliance standards for issues like infection control remains unspent two months after it became law as part of the Cares Act. Another $100 million to help ensure access to broadband for Americans in rural parts of the country also remains unspent.
A separate $100 million appropriation to help the Federal Emergency Management Agency purchase personal protective equipment for firefighters also hasn’t been spent. Additionally, less than half the $16 billion Congress dedicated over four separate pieces of legislation to bulking up critical medical supplies in the Strategic National Stockpile has been spent, according to the Democrats’ calculations
3 Likes
“He’s Going to Broom Kushner and Parscale”: “Malignantly Crazy” About Bad Poll Numbers, Trump Is Thinking of Replacing His Son-In-Law
After a botched response to two national crises, Trump’s polls are cratering, and “no one is telling him what he wants to hear,” says a source, igniting a new round of grumbling about Kushner.
In Donald Trump ’s West Wing, being a member of the Trump family has historically been the ultimate job security. But that truism is being stress-tested after a run of polls consistently show Trump losing to Joe Biden at this stage of the race—a CNN poll this morning has him down 14 points. According to a source close to the White House, Trump has mulled taking oversight of the campaign away from his son-in-law Jared Kushner. “Trump is malignantly crazy about the bad poll numbers,” a former West Wing official said. “He’s going to broom Kushner and [Brad] Parscale —the numbers are not getting better,” a Republican close to the campaign said.
Long before the reelection campaign went sideways, Trump frequently blew up at Kushner. For instance, former West Wing officials recall how Trump hated when Kushner received too much positive press (In January, Trump was rankled when Kushner’s portrait graced the cover of Time ). “Any time Jared is in the papers, Trump complains, ‘We have to get Jared back to New York!’” said a Republican who heard Trump make the comment. In the end, the source cautioned that Trump won’t push Kushner out. “This is typical with him and Jared,” the source said.
(The White House did not respond to requests for comment. Kushner declined to comment.)
The polling has gotten worse because Trump still hasn’t figured out how to handle the politics of the protest movement sparked by the police killing of George Floyd. Axios reported the campaign is debating whether Trump should talk about national unity. Trump took some solace in last week’s unemployment report, which was less horrendous than many economists expected. “He was in a good mood, he thinks the jobs numbers will turn things around,” said a Republican that spoke with Trump.
Last week, Trump’s former defense secretary James Mattis released a blistering statement criticizing Trump’s use of military force to clear peaceful protesters from Lafayette Square so Trump could stage a photo op outside of a church. Mattis had agonized for months about whether to speak out, a person close to him told me. Mattis told people that Trump is a “proto-neofascist” but Mattis worried it would politicize the military if he denounced Trump. “Mattis’s thinking was, you can’t involve the military in politics, plus Trump could go haywire,” said the source. But Lafayette Square changed his thinking.
Over the weekend, Trump called around to New York friends and outside advisers in hopes they would validate Trump’s belief that the polls are wrong. “He’s asking people to agree with him that the polls are biased. But no one is telling him what he wants to hear,” said a Republican briefed on the calls. Republicans know how bad things are, but the party still believes sticking with Trump is the best bet for holding the Senate. Last week, Mitch McConnell told Republican senators that they couldn’t abandon Trump, according to a source. McConnell reminded Republicans that former New Hampshire senator Kelly Ayotte lost her 2016 reelection bid after breaking with Trump over the Access Hollywood video.
(Through a spokesperson, McConnell denied making the comment.)
This post has been updated.
3 Likes
Hospitals Got Bailouts and Furloughed Thousands While Paying C.E.O.s Millions
Dozens of top recipients of government aid have laid off, furloughed or cut the pay of tens of thousands of employees.
4 Likes
CDC wants states to count ‘probable’ coronavirus cases and deaths, but most aren’t doing it
3 Likes
Please move to and re-fresh the Coronavirus thread:
White House goes quiet on coronavirus as outbreak spikes again across the U.S.
It’s been more than a month since the White House halted its daily coronavirus task force briefings.
4 Likes
The study found that if people wear masks whenever they are in public it is twice as effective at reducing the R value than if masks are only worn after symptoms appear.
In all scenarios the study looked at, routine face mask use by 50% or more of the population reduced COVID-19 spread to an R of less than 1.0, flattening future disease waves and allowing for less stringent lockdowns.
Experts not directly involved in the latest British study were divided over its conclusions.
3 Likes
Video from Meidas Touch: They Lie, You Die
2 Likes
Second Wave in U.S.; WHO Warns on Latin America: Virus Update
Some pockets of the U.S. are seeing a wave of new virus cases as reopenings continue to expand
Covid-19 cases in Arizona, Florida, California raise alarms
Experts say that surges can’t be linked directly to reopenings
Minneapolis Police Chief Sued by Journalist Blinded by Rubber Bullet
2 Likes
Mnuchin is opining on how ‘safe’ it is to be indoors in a restaurant (despite the air circulation issue) and it would be similar he thinks to being outdoors when it rains.
Old Proverb - “When it rains, it pours BS” (my take)
“This distinction between indoor & outdoor seems a bit random, & I don’t know what people would do when it rains” — Steve Mnuchin is oblivious to research showing that Covid spreads much more easily indoors than outdoors
2 Likes
What kind of twilight zone of sitcom idiocy are we in?
Coronavirus Live Updates: Trump Rally Attendees Cannot Sue if They Get Covid-19, Campaign Says
Preventing the wearing of a mask in public or in a workplace has become the latest crusade of Trump supporters (let me note here what I said on Twitter earlier in the week – I will no longer refer to Trump or his supporters as conservatives because 1) they aren’t 2) that is an insult to true movement conservatives whom I fundamentally disagree with on a number of issues, but have always had great respect for through the years.) and throughout Florida, the President’s adopted home state MAGA-types are getting increasingly aggressive about this.
Florida: Where being socially conscious by wearing a mask could be hazardous to your job, safety and health.
Covid-19 Patient Gets Double Lung Transplant, Offering Hope for Others
The operation is believed to be the first of its kind in the U.S. The patient, a woman in her 20s, had been healthy, but the coronavirus devastated her lungs.
4 Likes