WTF Community

🤮 Coronavirus (Community Thread)


#421

I’ve seen these reports too in my nervous scrolling, does anyone have any recovery reports handy? Or info about the virus itself and duration of illness? That might be more useful, since disinformation is abound these days.


(Matt Kiser) #422

That’s good question. I would have no idea how to answer it, unfortunately. Seems like a task better left to epidemiologists and other professionals

I did find this to be useful for context


(Heather Katz) #423

I use a website called worldometers. The information presented is in sync with numbers used in other reporting.


#424

I watch this guy…he does a daily review of the comparative numbers between the countries -

Don’t be alarmed by the name Peak Prosperity or Honey Badger, he really analyzes the daily numbers…and has some back up materials. Sorry if it looks a little odd, but I think he explains the relative differences between the countries very well. It was recommended on another trusted site I look at emptywheel.net (smart people)

He’s a investment banker-type, and the Peak Prosperity is a group who does investing as well. It is worth a look as an overview of the world situation. He is skeptical and thorough. Check it out. (Looks like he uses Worldometer.com as well)

I will see if I can dig some other numbers as well…


(David Bythewood) #425

That graph was so powerful, I animated it.


#426

Because Elon Musk is that much smarter?? look what he found…ventilators (1000 of them)

And they also need to find masks too.

Tech billionaires are jostling to donate protective masks.

Over the weekend a flurry of tech CEOs including Apple’s Tim Cook, Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, and Tesla’s Elon Musk promised to deliver millions of masks to healthcare workers working on the front line to fight against the coronavirus.

Panic buying means masks are in short supply even for hospital staff, so much so tha the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said last week that as a last resort healthcare workers should use a bandana or scarf.

The World Health Organization cautions that members of the public do not need to wear masks unless they are caring for someone who has contracted COVID-19, and warns that they are ony effective if put on and removed properly.


#427

Interesting to hear epidemiologists describe how complex the modeling aspect of all of these numbers really is. So look at this as a way to check the epidemiologist’s assumptions I guess.

Dr Kathryn Snow is an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Melbourne, working in health services research for vulnerable populations, and says it’s important to remember a lot of models, for example those that predict deaths, make assumptions about the health system or the behaviour of a population. But even small changes to these elements could drastically change the projections. So governments are more likely to have dozens of different graphs and models to predict infection, bed capacity and deaths, rather than relying on one.

For example, what if at the start of an epidemic you have a model that predicts deaths over the next six months, but then one month in, the government closes its borders? What if a graph suggests that closing schools slows infection spread, but it turns out that is in cases of diseases children are especially vulnerable to, such as measles? What if a model on the impact of closing schools assumes children will stay at home for six months, but people get complacent after four weeks and children begin to mingle in shopping centres and parks, or with vulnerable people such as grandparents? Uncertainties, errors and presumptions in models are rarely communicated when images of graphs are shared.

Snow says: “On social media, a lot of anxiety is being driven by homemade models and graphs, which have been produced by well-meaning people who aren’t actually epidemic modellers.

Epidemic modelling is extremely complex, and small changes in the way it’s done can have huge impacts on the results,” she says. “We shouldn’t trust homemade epidemic models any more than we would trust homemade climate models or economic models.”

Prof Hassan Vally, an infectious disease epidemiologist, says even looking at good quality models from researchers overseas such as in China, where experts have had more time and data to examine the virus, can only tell us so much. It is hard to separate out every intervention to see how much curve-flattening impact any one has, he says.


#428

This press conference today UNREAL. Good description of T’s flying blind into this pandemic.

David Smith

Trump’s push to shorten the coronavirus shutdown proves the captain is flying blind

Donald Trump dismisses coronavirus as a ‘purely medical problem’ – video

Due to social distancing, there were only two dozen or so reporters in the White House press briefing room on Monday, making it feel like a flight with numerous empty seats and lots of legroom.

But when Donald Trump let rip for nearly two hours, it was as if the captain had announced a sudden whim to land the plane on water while wearing a blindfold. We sat tight for an unnerving journey.

On a day that a hundred American deaths were reported, the US president made clear his intention to reopen the country for business much sooner than expected and, seemingly, sooner than medical experts believe to be safe. Everything we know about him suggests this impulse has been guided by Fox News, the Wall Street Journal, the stock market, poll numbers, the imminent election and pure gut instinct. Not science.

To watch Trump talk himself into this rash action in real time from a seat 30 feet (10 metres) away was to witness the awesome and terrifying power of the American president over life and death. It is a solemn burden that he, the first White House occupant with no prior political or military experience, is uniquely unqualified to bear.


#429

Major U.S. airlines are drafting plans for a potential voluntary shutdown of virtually all passenger flights across the U.S., according to industry and federal officials, as government agencies also consider ordering such a move and the nation’s air-traffic control system continues to be ravaged by the coronavirus contagion.

No final decisions have been made by the carriers or the White House, these officials said. As airlines struggle to keep aircraft flying with minimal passengers, various options are under consideration, these people said.

But amid the quickly spreading pandemic and mandatory stay-at-home orders covering some 80 million U.S. residents, airline executives, pilot-union leaders and federal transportation officials said they increasingly view as inevitable further sharp reductions from already-decimated schedules in passenger flights.

U.S. airlines have already eliminated the vast majority of international flying and have announced plans to cut back domestic flying by as much as 40%. Travelers are staying home at even greater rates. The Transportation Security Administration reported that passenger flow at its checkpoints was down more than 80% Sunday from the same day a year earlier.


#430

As sung to the Prince’s tune. “I Will Die 4 You” - WTF

TX Lt Gov Patrick on Fox Tucker Carlson’s show tonight is elated that the economy would not be sacrificed by opening up businesses again and that Grandparents don’t mind carrying the burden (by dying).

Video :point_down:


(M A Croft) #431

If T’s “plan” to lift the current social distancing regime (such as it is) in a week goes ahead, it will have extremely serious outcomes for America - if not the whole world. The incubation period for COVID-19 is between 3 and 11 days, so govt’s world wide have been instituting a 14 day isolation period for all suspected or likely and cases. If the person doesn’t display symptoms within that time frame, its most likely that they do not have the virus. However, if they do present, then those who have been in contact also may be contagious.
It is far too early to be thinking about relaxation of quarantine rules. The consequences of such an action will be disaster - not only for the older population but for everyone.
My thoughts are constantly with you all and pray that sense will eventually triumph over the greed of the few. (You know who they are)


(David Bythewood) #432

Trump uses daily coronavirus briefings to replace campaign rallies

Coronavirus: WHO Head Says Nations Must Attack As ‘Pandemic Is Accelerating’

Your coronavirus coping kit

It’s a scary time. We made something to help.

I think Matt Gaetz may be running a fever. He’s said something true, perception, AND righteous!



#433

So true. Here’s a cautionary tale on what happened when Hong Kong relaxed its isolating measures too early. They were over confident and things turned ugly very quickly.

Plus, Trump is undermining the critical measures we are trying to hold in place today. How seriously are people going to take “shelter-in-place” if their government appears to be ambivalent about that policy and is considering dumping it in a few days?


(M A Croft) #434

Further to the above here is a link to a comparative analysis between a Wuhan Style Containment and a “Shelter in Place” Containment/Delay.

  • Wuhan-style Containment

    • Goal: Fully and permanently contain disease until vaccine is developed
    • Duration: 2 months (8 weeks)
    • Measures: Treat everyone as infected. Forced community-wide home quarantine, full shutdown of all businesses, closed borders, active monitoring, full population-wide mandatory testing and aggressive quarantine. Public aid relief bill.
    • After-effects: Once ended, long-term implementation of border quarantines (14 days), active monitoring, and potential for repeat of measures above to ensure containment.
    • R0 assumptions: 1.3 for 1 week, 0.3 for 5 weeks, 0.2 for 1 week, 0.035 for 1 week. Based on early reported Wuhan actuals, for the first 6 weeks, and extrapolations for the remaining 2 weeks. See this chart (lockdown was announced on ~Jan 23):
  • “Shelter-in-place” Containment/Delay

    • Goal: Ideally fully contain disease until vaccine is developed, or at least delay spread until healthcare capacity can be built and therapeutic becomes available
    • Duration: 3 months (12 weeks)
    • Measures: Voluntary/VolunTold “shelter-in-place” community-wide home quarantine (especially firm for high-risk groups), shutdown of non-essential businesses, close schools, ban on events over 10 people, passive monitoring, public advocacy around social distancing and enhanced hygiene. Possibly closed borders or restricted travel. Public aid relief bill. Roll-out of free population-wide testing and quarantine, so that quarantines can be relaxed for those who are not infected.
    • After-effects: If contained, long-term implementation of border quarantines (14 days), active monitoring, and potential for repeat of measures above to ensure containment. If not contained, measures likely to be extended for 12-18 months in order to fully #flattenthecurve, with testing making quarantines more targeted.
    • R0 assumptions: 1.3 for 4 weeks, 1.1 for 4 weeks, 0.8 for 4 weeks. Based on conjecture and extrapolation from Wuhan data above to a less ideal/strict containment scenario.
  • Delay/Distancing

    • Goal: Delay the overloading of the healthcares system to minimize unnecessary deaths, while minimizing damage to the economy
    • Duration: 3 months (12 weeks)
    • Measures: Voluntary “shelter-in-place” for high-risk groups, ban on events over 50 people, public advocacy around “social distancing” and enhanced hygiene, possible school closures, restricted travel, and passive monitoring. Roll-out of population-wide testing and quarantine, so that quarantines can be relaxed for those who are not infected.
    • After-effects: Measures likely to be extended for 12-18 months in order to fully #flattenthecurve
    • R0 assumptions: 1.7 for 3 months. Based on rough extrapolation of reducing 50% of overall transmission opportunities in society, thus cutting a worst-cases R0 of ~3.2 to roughly 1.7.
  • Do Nothing: current historical trends continue

    • R0 assumptions: Actual data where available, 2.4 for all forward-looking periods.

#435

Bloomberg

Coronavirus Traces Lingered in Vacated Cruise Cabins for 17 Days

By Jonathan Levin and Michelle Fay Cortez

March 23, 2020, 11:53 AM PDT


This virus is a sneaky little devil…

Traces of new coronavirus were found on surfaces in cruise-ship cabins for as many as 17 days after passengers left, researchers said, though it wasn’t possible to determine whether they caused any infections.

Researchers looked at the rooms of infected passengers aboard the Diamond Princess, both those who showed symptoms and those who didn’t, according to a study Monday in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

The ship, operated by Carnival Corp.’s Princess Cruises, had more than 700 coronavirus cases. It was quarantined for a time off of Yokohama, Japan, and was the largest outbreak outside of mainland China at one point.

A previous analysis found that the virus remained viable on plastic and stainless steel for up to three days, although levels fell dramatically over time. It was less stable on copper, where no viable virus was found after 4 hours, and cardboard, which was clean after 24 hours, according to the report in the New England Journal of Medicine.

The latest study looked at uncleaned rooms, but other research has found that cleaning the rooms of Covid-19 patients was highly effective at killing the virus.


(David Bythewood) #436

New York will be first state to test treatment of coronavirus with blood from recovered patients

The method dates back more than a century, but it has not been used widely in the United States in decades.

In other news, Soylent Green and Logan’s Run have been trending because of Trump’s call to sacrifice the elderly on the altar of Wall Street, a call echoed by the Lt. Gov. of Texas.

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick spurns shelter in place, urges return to work, says grandparents should sacrifice

“My message is that let’s get back to work,” Patrick said on Fox News. “And those of us who are 70 plus, we’ll take care of ourselves. But don’t sacrifice the country.”

Nurse: What my daughter fears for me




(David Bythewood) #437

Trump this morning re-tweeted an Israeli expert who agrees with him and says the WHO is wrong despite the fact that the man is an engineer, not a physician. He does work on programming models to predict the spread of illnesses, particularly respiratory ones, but doesn’t mean he’s correct here.
image


It is very, very clear that he is trying to undermine support for social distancing.

Trump is so stupid he just re-tweeted somebody using the Dr. Fauci face-palm video to mock him because he thinks it dunks on Dr. Fauci for touching his face. Seriously.
image


#438

lol I literally just read this thread about two minutes ago:

She mostly just says that there needs to be further study on this anyway, since we already have had the time and research to discover that community transmission is possible.

Moral of the story, wash your fucking hands ya filthy animals. :wink:


#439

In one Italian town, we showed mass testing could eradicate the coronavirus

But in the last two weeks, a promising pilot study here has produced results that may be instructive for other countries trying to control coronavirus. Beginning on 6 March , along with researchers at the University of Padua and the Red Cross, we tested all residents of Vò, a town of 3,000 inhabitants near Venice – including those who did not have symptoms. This allowed us to quarantine people before they showed signs of infection and stop the further spread of coronavirus. In this way, we eradicated coronavirus in under 14 days.

While we believe **it is too late to enact this approach in a city** such as Milan, where infections are out of control, there could still be time to do this in the UK before the crisis gets even worse : the government could identify and isolate clusters, quarantine everyone affected, trace their recent contacts, and quarantine and isolate them, too – whether they had symptoms or not.

Our experiment came to be by chance. The Italian authorities had a strong emotional reaction to news of the country’s first death – which was in Vò. The whole town was put into quarantine and every inhabitant was tested. The tests were processed by us at the University of Padua. It became clear that this was a unique epidemiological setting – and an application was put in to keep the town in lockdown and run a second round of tests after nine days.

In the first round of testing, 89 people tested positive. In the second round, the number had dropped to six, who remained in isolation. In this way, we managed to eradicate coronavirus from Vò, achieving a 100% recovery rate for those previously infected while recording no further cases of transmission.

We made an interesting finding: at the time the first symptomatic case was diagnosed, a significant proportion of the population, about 3%, had already been infected – yet most of them were completely asymptomatic. Our study established a valuable principle: testing of all citizens, whether or not they have symptoms, provides a way to control this pandemic.


(David Bythewood) #440

Twitter is blowing up with hashtags related to Trump’s determination to sacrifice lives for the economy. He’s shown the nation where his priorities are, and I don’t think it’s going to go well for him.

Think Trump will get jealous?

Texas and Ohio Include Abortion as Medical Procedures That Must Be Delayed

The moves by the states set off a new front in the political fight over abortion during the coronavirus pandemic.