🤮 Coronavirus (Community Thread)

dragonfly9 · February 4, 2021, 7:28pm

Here’s some alarming news on Covid which grows exponentially and evidence of more and more variants that are creating problems as well.
Strategy perhaps - Vaccine the most vulnerable now…and hope that some combo of vaccines will ward off these variants some more vicious than others.

LONDON, Feb 4 (Reuters) - The world faces around 4,000 variants of the virus that causes COVID-19, prompting a race to improve vaccines, Britain said on Thursday, as researchers began to explore mixing doses of the Pfizer and AstraZeneca shots in a world first.

Thousands of variants have been documented as the virus mutates, including the so-called British, South African and Brazilian variants which appear to spread more swiftly than others.

British Vaccine Deployment Minister Nadhim Zahawi said it was very unlikely that the current vaccines would not work against the new variants.

“Its very unlikely that the current vaccine won’t be effective on the variants whether in Kent or other variants especially when it comes to severe illness and hospitalisation,” Zahawi told Sky News.

“All manufacturers, Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, Oxford-AstraZeneca and others, are looking at how they can improve their vaccine to make sure that we are ready for any variant - there are about 4,000 variants around the world of COVID now.”

VACCINE RACE

The novel coronavirus - known as SARS-CoV-2 - has killed 2.268 million people worldwide since it emerged in China in late 2019, according to Johns Hopkins University of Medicine.

Israel is currently far ahead of the rest of the world on vaccinations per head of population, followed by the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, Bahrain, the United States and then Spain, Italy and Germany.

Britain on Thursday launched a trial to assess the immune responses generated if doses of the vaccines from Pfizer and AstraZeneca are combined in a two-shot schedule. Initial data on immune responses is expected to be generated around June.

The trial will examine the immune responses of an initial dose of Pfizer vaccine followed by a booster of AstraZeneca’s, as well as vice versa, with intervals of four and 12 weeks.

The trial will be the first of its kind to combine a mRNA shot - the one developed by Pfizer and BioNtech - and a adenovirus viral vector vaccine of the type developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca. AstraZeneca’s shot is separately being trialled in combination with another viral vector vaccine, Russia’s Sputnik V.

The British researchers behind the trial said data on vaccinating people with the two different types of vaccines could help understanding of whether shots can be rolled out with greater flexibility around the world, and might even increase immune responses.

everentropy · February 4, 2021, 9:44pm

One thing to remember is, all of the vaccines so far reduce hospitalizations and death so while the new forms might increase the number of people getting ill or having more severe cases, it’ll still help quite a bit. Because of where the vaccine targets the virus would have to change drastically before it would become ineffective and I haven’t seen anything about effectiveness dropping significantly, though there might not be enough data. All of the shots we have right now are actually more effective than the flu shot (which is typically 40-60% effective) so even though it’s more deadly, it’ll provide more protection for those vaccinated. And even one shot helps so I’m hoping many places start prioritizing getting at least one shot in those who are most vulnerable. But yes, vaccinating the vulnerable is absolutely crucial, particularly with these new more infectious strains. I’m hoping this latest bill will allow states to better handle their roll-outs,

Windthin · February 5, 2021, 4:48pm

dragonfly9 · February 8, 2021, 5:00am

dragonfly9 · February 8, 2021, 5:50pm

Huddy · February 8, 2021, 7:01pm

Wasn’t this the guy who said women who have abortions should be executed because they murdered a baby?
Um, sorry, NOT SORRY.

dragonfly9 · February 9, 2021, 1:46am

The verdict is still out on whether schools should open. Everyone asking “Is it safe?”

CNa1 · February 9, 2021, 8:15am

Several aspects to take into account.
Some teachers in US & EU, who taught both online and in class, admit that the online lessons tests had dismal results!
(Distractions, lack of follow up, etc).
Some psychologists fear the longer it takes, the harder it will be to “go back to normal”.

OTOH, the children, while rarely affected themselves, are known carriers!
Teachers should have priority in vaccination.
In the US, it would allow parents, particularly women, to go back to the workforce.
Plan B, closing a school when cases reappear, must be in place!

Windthin · February 11, 2021, 7:12pm

Queensland University and Oxford University Medical researchers investigating why asthma sufferers were “under-represented” in severe Covid cases have completed a clinical trial of Budesonide asthma inhalers. According to researchers the randomised trial was stopped early, because the results were so remarkable, the researchers did not believe it ethical to deny treatment to placebo patients.

Not sure what to think of this study yet, I am asking about. I am wary of posting something that may be another “miracle cure.”

Windthin · February 11, 2021, 7:39pm

A lone infection may have changed the course of the pandemic

The number of mutations in the UK variant took scientists by surprise. Now they think its origins may lie in one person, chronically infected with the virus

dragonfly9 · February 11, 2021, 11:57pm

dragonfly9 · February 12, 2021, 12:00am

President Donald J. Trump was sicker with Covid-19 in October than publicly acknowledged at the time, with extremely depressed blood oxygen levels at one point and a lung problem associated with pneumonia caused by the coronavirus, according to four people familiar with his condition.

His prognosis became so worrisome before he was taken to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center that officials believed he would need to be put on a ventilator, two of the people familiar with his condition said.

The people familiar with Mr. Trump’s health said he was found to have lung infiltrates, which occur when the lungs are inflamed and contain substances such as fluid or bacteria. Their presence, especially when a patient is exhibiting other symptoms, can be a sign of an acute case of the disease. They can be easily spotted on an X-ray or scan, when parts of the lungs appear opaque, or white.

Mr. Trump’s blood oxygen level alone was cause for extreme concern, dipping into the 80s, according to the people familiar with his evaluation. The disease is considered severe when the blood oxygen level falls to the low 90s.

It has been previously reported that Mr. Trump had trouble breathing and a fever on Oct. 2, the day he was taken to the hospital, and the types of treatment he received indicated that his condition was serious. But the new details about his condition and about the effort inside the White House to get him special access to an unapproved drug to fight the virus help to flesh out one of the most dire episodes of Mr. Trump’s presidency.

The new revelations about Mr. Trump’s struggle with the virus also underscore the limited and sometimes misleading nature of the information disclosed at the time about his condition.

The former president resisted being taken from the White House to Walter Reed, relenting when aides told him that he could walk out on his own, or risk waiting until the U.S. Secret Service was forced to carry him out if he got sicker, two people familiar with the events said.

While Mr. Trump was hospitalized at Walter Reed, his medical team sought to downplay the severity of the situation, saying that he was on an upswing. At 74 and overweight, he was at risk for severe disease, and was prescribed an aggressive course of treatments. He left the hospital after three days in which he at one point staged a brief ride in his armored sport-utility vehicle to wave at the crowd of supporters outside the building.

A person close to the former president denied that he had been seriously ill, echoing comments Mr. Trump himself made after he was sick.

Windthin · February 15, 2021, 4:56pm

Doctors bring the fight to anti-vaxxers online

Health care workers are organizing online networks to promote Covid shots, strategically aiming to drown out vaccine opponents active on those sites.

dragonfly9 · February 16, 2021, 9:10pm

dragonfly9 · February 19, 2021, 7:59pm

There’s a WSJ Opinion piece circulating which states we are almost at herd immunity (April 2021) but I believe we need to take note of all the other factors which may make it a different story. I am not including all that is written or graphed, but will link you to some explainer articles.

Opinion by WSJ here.
Opinion/WSJ on herd immunity

How quickly a community gets to herd immunity depends on a number of factors. We’ve illustrated some major ones in the scenarios that follow.

1) A more infectious variant takes over

2) A population is already heavily exposed

The pandemic has hit some communities harder than others, leaving in its wake some degree of natural immunity. This scenario assumes a lot of people are already immune to SIMVID-19, through a previous infection.

3) A population has low levels of initial immunity

You can see in this scenario how SIMVID-19 can spread more easily in a population where few people are immune at the start of an outbreak. It is harder to achieve herd immunity in this scenario, and increased levels of vaccination are key. When it comes to coronavirus, some communities have lower level of preexisting immunity and scientists think that the immunity people do have may fade over time.

…

Takeaways for COVID-19

In our SIMVID-19 scenarios, 75% vaccination rates were able to kick the imaginary disease in all but one scenario, the more infectious variant. For the U.S. to tame its coronavirus outbreak through herd immunity, scientists expect that somewhere between 70% and 85% of the population must be immune.

Unfortunately, we can’t predict exactly what vaccination rate will be needed because there are many questions about the coronavirus we simply can’t answer.

For example, people who are vaccinated may still pose some risk of spreading the virus, even though the vaccines protect them from serious illness. And no vaccine is 100% effective, so some vaccinated people will still get ill and could still pass on the disease. You can see this in our model, as dark-gray, vaccinated individuals turn infected pink, from time to time.

And though we do know that perhaps 120 million Americans have already been infected, we don’t know how long immunity following infection will last. Finally, there is a concern that some variants now spreading around the world will render vaccines less effective.

One thing that’s evident from this simulation (and real life) is that the faster the population is protected by vaccination the better.

Windthin · February 19, 2021, 8:24pm

The GOP is so dumb about this they had to put one in a box.

Windthin · February 21, 2021, 2:02am

Trump Is Guilty of Pandemicide

History will show the former U.S. president was staggeringly negligent during the pandemic’s deadly third wave.

At long last, we see glimmers of hope. The COVID-19 epidemic in the United States has fallen below the numbers of daily new cases tallied on the eve of the presidential election, the point at which this viral nightmare soared. Using the New York Times ’ coronavirus data tracker, on Nov. 1, 2020, there were 74,195 new cases counted in the country; by Feb. 16, new case reports came in at 64,376.

But in between those dates, a national horror unfolded, peaking on Jan. 8 with 300,619 new cases reported in just 24 hours. This staggering wave, one full year into the pandemic, was completely unnecessary for the world’s richest country. Achieving any sense of closure will require holding Donald Trump accountable for the failure.

There is vast evidence of Trump’s negligence during the pandemic’s third wave. Had I been a member of the House of Representatives during the body’s impeachment deliberations, I would have added to Trump’s indictment the crime of pandemicide, naming him as responsible for most of the COVID-19 deaths that transpired while he, the nation’s leader, was preoccupied with damning Joe Biden’s election victory. Trump’s failure to, as he vowed in his oath of office, “faithfully execute the office of president of the United States” promulgated a scale of lives lost exceeding anything experienced in the country since the Civil War, 160 years ago.

I do not accuse Trump of pandemicide in reference to mistakes made by his administration between January 2020—when it generally ignored the outbreak in Wuhan, China—and the summer surge of cases and deaths across the United States. I do not charge pandemicide over Trump’s Feb. 26, 2020, dismissal of the COVID-19 threat as miniscule, claiming, “The level that we’ve had in our country is very low, and those people are getting better, or we think that in almost all cases they’re better or getting. We have a total of 15.” Nor do I charge pandemicide over his repeated insistence that COVID-19 cures were available in the forms of hydroxychloroquine, bleach, ultraviolet light, convalescent plasma therapy, the Regeneron cocktail, oleander extract, or simply warm weather.

And though there is striking evidence that the policies of the four-year Trump administration vastly worsened life expectancy and mortality rates in the United States, contributing to 461,000 excess deaths in 2018 alone, these are matters of callous, ill-considered policies and brutal budget cuts, preceding the virus’s arrival to U.S. shores.

Pandemicide is not the outcome of ill-advised, ignorant, or outright stupid budget actions and health messages. I do not even level the charge over Trump’s denunciation of mask use and opposition to temporary business and school closures to halt the spread of SARS-CoV-2, encouraging people to “liberate” states that were implementing tough lockdown regulations.

Rather, the path of pandemicide was paved in pursuit of the president’s reelection and his relentless, all-consuming post-election campaign to refute his opponent’s victory, claiming election fraud and even theft. Despite the summer surge in COVID-19 infections nationwide, Trump abandoned virtual campaigning in favor of crowded, largely maskless gatherings of his supporters, knowingly risking that each rally would become a superspreader event. According to a study by Stanford University, 18 campaign rallies held between June 20 and Sept. 22, 2020, spawned in excess of 30,000 COVID-19 cases, likely leading to more than 700 deaths. During the same time period, half of Trump’s campaign rallies were followed by COVID-19 surges in the counties in which they took place. While Biden’s campaign rallies were largely virtual or held in parking areas with participants in their vehicles, Trump’s tightly packed, mostly mask-free throngs increased in both number and frequency, further spreading the virus and causing the U.S. government’s top COVID-19 response expert, Anthony Fauci, to warn that the president was “asking for trouble.”

Even after Trump and the first lady contracted COVID-19, compelling emergency treatment that included, in Trump’s case, hospitalization at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center and round-the-clock treatment from an army of physicians and nurses, the president refused to regularly don a mask. On the day of his hospital admission, Oct. 2, the United States had cumulatively logged more than 200,000 deaths to COVID-19—an undercount, as are all U.S. COVID-19 numbers, but an official data point that would more than double by the Jan. 20 inauguration of Biden. According to a new Lancet Commission report compiled by an international team of august scientists and public health leaders, some 40 percent of America’s COVID-19 death toll during the Trump administration was needless, meaning it could have been averted with available nonmedical interventions.

By the time the election took place, Trump had ignored the pandemic, not attending a single COVID-19 White House meeting for at least five months, since late May. Behind the scenes in the fall, the Trump administration lobbied Congress vigorously to block the movement of funds to states for vaccine rollout efforts, leaving them unable to efficiently execute mass immunizations.

First human case of H5N8 bird flu reported in Russia

dragonfly9 · February 22, 2021, 9:51pm

Cover of NYT today with 500K dots representing all the deaths to Covid to date.

Windthin · February 23, 2021, 8:42pm

The California variant may be all that we’ve feared.

dragonfly9 · February 26, 2021, 6:25am

Unfortunately in our isolation, 1 in 5 may be more inclined towards extremism.

The Washington Post: Top Stories | Eroding trust, spreading fear: The historical ties between pandemics and extremism

Since ancient times, pandemics have spurred sharp turns in political beliefs, spawning extremist movements, waves of mistrust and wholesale rejection of authorities. A year into the coronavirus crisis, Americans are falling prey to the same phenomenon, historians, theologians and other experts say, exemplified by a recent NPR-Ipsos poll in which nearly 1 in 5 said they believe Satan-worshipping, child-enslaving elites seek to control the world.