WTF Community

2020 General Election


#323

And while Tuesday’s narrow victory in a North Carolina special election provided a sorely needed bright spot for the party, the big picture for Republicans remains dim. Even some of Trump’s top allies on Capitol Hill recognize that it’s going to be an uphill climb in flipping the 18 seats they need to win back the House.

“I see an easy path for 12 pickup seats. It’s the last six that will be tough, and that actually runs through California,” said Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), head of the conservative House Freedom Caucus. “If we don’t pick up any in California, it will be virtually impossible.”


#324

This is good work. Immigration is shaping up to be a big issue in 2020. This is a great place to for candidates to contrast with the President and his expensive cruel policies.

Immigration: Where 2020 Democratic Candidates Stand On Border Crossings And More


#325

Livestream 3rd Democratic Debate here :point_down:


#326

Third Round of the Democratic Primary Debates

Highlights:

Transcript:

https://beta.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/09/13/transcript-third-democratic-debate/

Fact check:

Analysis:

:woman_shrugging:t2::

Anyone watch?


#327

Next month’s debate info

The New York Times and CNN will co-host the next Democratic debate near Columbus, Ohio, on Oct. 15, with the possibility of a second round one night later depending on how many candidates meet the qualifying criteria.

The Democratic National Committee announced Friday that the debate would be held in Westerville, Ohio, on the campus of Otterbein University. The moderators will be the CNN anchors Anderson Cooper and Erin Burnett as well as The Times’s National editor, Marc Lacey.

So far 11 candidates have qualified for the CNN/New York Times debate — the 10 Democrats who appeared in Thursday night’s debate on ABC, as well as the businessman Tom Steyer, who recently qualified for the next one. Other candidates have until the end of the day on Oct. 1 to meet the qualifying standards.

The criteria for October are the same as those for September: Candidates must have 130,000 unique donors and register at least 2 percent support in four qualifying polls.

Mr. Steyer, the billionaire investor and impeachment activist, made the cut after a recent CBS News/YouGov poll showed him at 2 percent in Nevada, a key early-voting state.

Along with Mr. Steyer, the October debate will feature:

Two other candidates have met the 130,000-donor threshold but have not met the polling threshold:

  • Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii
  • Marianne Williamson, a self-help author

Ms. Gabbard has two qualifying polls and needs two more; Ms. Williamson has only one qualifying poll and needs three more.


#328

I think the debates are hurting our chances of taking back the White House. I’m still optimistic we will do so, but it will be in spite of these debates not because of them. I’m 100% in agreement with SE Cupp’s scathing review:


(David Bythewood) #329

In U.S. Presidential races, the popular-vote winner will lose 40% of elections decided by 2 million votes or less. Electoral College “inversions” have been likely since the 1800s, from @ MikeGeruso , Dean Spears, and Ishaana Talesara


https://www.nber.org/papers/w26247
image


#330

At a Trump rally back in February in El Paso, Texas, the campaign saw an unexpected pattern in the attendee data — a large crowd of New Mexicans crossed the state line to be there.

  • "That was our first glimpse into the idea that there might be something happening," the Trump campaign’s Tim Murtaugh told Axios.

Why it matters: Since then, New Mexico has become an unlikely target for the 2020 Trump campaign. It’s the state with the highest percentage of Hispanics and Latinos (about 1 in 2 residents), and it’s gone with Democrats in 6 of the last 7 general elections.

Reality check: Demographers and pollsters tell Axios it’s highly unlikely Trump can win New Mexico’s 5 electoral votes.

  • The state Latino population is overwhelmingly Democratic.
  • Major New Mexico cities are booming and moving left politically, while Republican strongholds are losing their share of the population.
  • Trump lost New Mexico in 2016, and his net approval rating has plummeted from +17 when he first took office to -13 as of July. The blue wave hit New Mexico hard in 2018.
  • America First — a prominent pro-Trump group — told Axios it doesn’t have plans at this point to poll in New Mexico.

But it’s an inexpensive bet to take for the RNC, given its relatively small population and centralized media, said Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling Inc.

  • The state economy was one of the last to recover from the recession, but has been doing well for the past year and a half, Sanderoff said.
  • The state was untapped in 2016 , RNC spokesperson Rick Gorka told Axios.
  • New Mexico Democrats tend to have more conservative views than other Democrats on religious freedom, LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, and there are signs of rising Latino support for Trump, Gorka and Murtaugh said. The Democrat-led state Senate voted to keep a law that criminalizes abortion.
  • The percentage of immigrants is lower than other border states such as California, Texas and Arizona, according to Census data.
  • Trump’s immigration policy and rhetoric may resonate in eastern New Mexico, aka “Little Texas,” said Gabriel Sanchez of the University of New Mexico.

#331

Oh! :hugs:

The Working Families Party, the labor-aligned progressive group whose electoral influence has grown since the 2016 election, has endorsed Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts for the Democratic presidential nomination, a boon to her candidacy as she attempts to position herself as the main challenger to former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

The party endorsed Senator Bernie Sandersof Vermont during the last presidential cycle, at which time he described Working Families as “the closest thing” to “my vision of democratic socialism.” The group’s endorsement of Ms. Warren on Monday, one of the few by a prominent progressive organization this early in the primary, could turn heads among left-leaning Democrats desperate to defeat Mr. Biden, the more moderate front-runner, in a primary election where their party’s ideological future is at stake.

“If our focus is on victory, we can’t be delusional about it,” said Maurice Mitchell, the Working Families Party’s national director. “You don’t defeat the moderate wing of Democrats through thought pieces or pithy tweets, you defeat their politics through organizing.”

Mr. Mitchell brushed off the possibility that the group’s endorsement would be seen as a sign of a splintering of the progressive left. The vote among “tens of thousands” of party members resulted in a commanding majority for Ms. Warren, a party spokesman said; she received more than 60 percent of the votes on the first ballot.


(David Bythewood) #332

Even the newest voting machines are vulnerable to reprogramming, cyber experts warn at Greensboro meeting called by the NAACP Tenn

“Bennie Smith, a data analyst and county election commissioner in Shelby County, Tenn…found a glitch in the system there that counted some votes in FRACTIONS.”


#333

Bloomberg

House GOP to Run in 2020 on Reducing the Debt They Helped Grow

By Erik Wasson

September 13, 2019, 8:18 AM PDT

House Republicans plan to run on tried-and-true issues in 2020: repealing Obamacare and reducing the national debt, even though the GOP fell short of both goals the last time the party had full control of Washington.

“The first thing we would do is make sure our debt is taken care of,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy told reporters during a meeting of party members in Baltimore to work on their election-year agenda.

This week, the annual budget deficit reached $1 trillion under President Donald Trump’s watch. When Republicans controlled the House, Senate and White House last year, they enacted tax cuts estimated to add $1.5 trillion in deficits over 10 years.

Republicans plan to reduce the debt by repealing Obamacare, McCarthy said, a day after Democratic presidential candidates vowed to greatly expand government’s role in health care during their third debate.

Democrats view health care and the defense of Obamacare as the key issue that sealed their takeover of the House in the 2018 election.

In 2017, “no” votes by GOP Senators John McCain, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski blocked Republicans’ attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

“We were one vote short of entitlement reform. We will have the opportunity with a Republican Senate and President Trump to change it once and for all and make America stronger,” McCarthy said Friday.

“We want to protect pre-existing conditions. We want to lower the cost of health care while raising quality overall,” McCarthy said. “Democrats are offering Medicare for All. They want to end health care” for millions of Americans who currently have coverage.

Second-ranking House Republican Steve Scalise added, “health care is an important issue for us to lean in on.” Republicans will refine their 2017 replacement bill to “make it even stronger” in the coming months, he said.

I almost posted this in the Humor section because it’s so laughable.

Running on reducing the deficit? After they juiced it to over $1 trillion by slashing taxes for the super rich? And how do they plan on reducing the deficit? Answer: By gutting social programs that Americans depend on and have contributed to. Republicans: “Sorry Average Americans we put billions more dollars in Rich People’s pockets now there’s nothing left for you.”

And what about the GOP’s healthcare “plan”? The real question is, what plan?

They had eight years under Obama to come up with one. Zip. Then they had two years of complete control of the legislative and executive branches to enact one. Nada. And today? Vaporware:

The funniest thing McCarthy said was, “We want to protect pre-existing conditions.” :lying_face: If that’s true then why is the Trump Administration challenging protections for pre-existing conditions in the courts?

One sentence encapsulates this article – and it’s backed up by plenty of evidence:

Trump has repeatedly supported legislation, regulations, and lawsuits to make it harder for sick people to get health insurance.

So, Republicans, you want to base your entire 2020 campaign strategy on two promises: reducing the deficit and providing a healthcare solution? Bring it on! :boom:


#334

:mega: :clap: :muscle:

Arizona has long been touted as a potential swing state in the presidential election. Its time may have finally come.

Demographic shifts, progressive organizing efforts and President Donald Trump’s potential weakness in the state appear to be providing Democrats in 2020 with their best shot at capturing the state since Bill Clinton won it more than two decades ago.

A new poll, commissioned by a state labor union and released today, shows Trump running neck-and-neck with Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden in theoretical match-ups.

That poll follows several other recent surveys with more bad news for Republicans. A late July survey — conducted by Trump’s own pollster — showed the president losing to Biden, and another in August reported a tie. In Arizona’s closely-watched 2020 U.S. Senate race, two of those polls show GOP Sen. Martha McSally in a tie and a third shows her trailing Democrat Mark Kelly.

“Republicans are very concerned,” said Chuck Coughlin, once a top aide to Republican Govs. Fife Symington and Jan Brewer. “The ground is shifting.”

During Trump’s first midterm election in 2018, Democrats for the first time in recent memory won four statewide elected offices. Kyrsten Sinema’s victory marked the first time Democrats have won an Arizona Senate seat since 1988; The party also picked up a handful of state legislative seats.

The polling suggests the days of writing off Arizona as comfortably Republican could be ending.

Trump’s approval rating is underwater, with 45 percent of Arizona voters holding a favorable impression of him and 53 percent having an unfavorable view — the overwhelming majority of whom hold a “very unfavorable view,” according to a survey of 520 Arizona registered voters by Bendixen & Amandi International.

“Contrary to the conventional wisdom that the presidential race is down to only four swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida — this poll makes it clear that Arizona is wide open,” said pollster Fernand Amandi. “Arizona is emerging as the new battleground.


#335

Mayor de Blasio out of Presidential race.


#336

Sen. Cory Booker must raise nearly $2 million in the next 10 days or the presidential candidate has no “legitimate long-term path forward,” according to a memo to staff from the campaign manager obtained by NBC News.

The struggling candidate’s campaign manager, Addisu Demissie, warned that after weaker-than-expected fundraising in the early part of September, the campaign needs to rake in another $1.7 million before the last day of the financial quarter on Sept. 30.

"Without a fundraising surge to close out this quarter, we do not see a legitimate long-term path forward," Demissie wrote in the Saturday memo to staff and supporters. "The next 10 days will determine whether Cory Booker can stay in this race."

It’s a shame Booker wasn’t able to build a larger coalition, he’s always so well spoken and sincere.


#337

Yes! If there’s any upside, it’s that he has received some solid national coverage. His leadership will be especially effective when we take back the Senate.


#338

Big news


#339

I can’t say enough good things about this article – it’s your “pocket guide” to the 2020 Senate races. Excellent analysis, state by state, sizing up the chances of candidates both Democratic and Republican. Even if you don’t have an opportunity to read this now, bookmark it because it will remain relevant for at least several months. Hoping Vox will update it along the path to 2020.

Yes, we can take the Senate and we will take the Senate. :muscle:

Republicans’ razor-thin three-seat majority in the Senate will be among the biggest fights during the 2020 election cycle, as Democrats look to not only win the White House but also gain full control of Congress.

Part of the reason this is such a big opportunity for Democrats is that Republicans will have to defend 22 seats in 2020 (many were first elected 2014 — a very strong year for Republicans) meaning Democrats are on offense. They are up in just 12 states.

Democrats do have certain factors playing in their favor. Trump’s low approval rating could be a drag on Republicans’ reelection bids, helping some Democrats ride to victory. After all, Trump is polling on net at -13 in Colorado, -15 in Maine, and -7 in Arizona — the places where Democrats have their best shotsaccording to Morning Consult. …

The rest of the introduction explains why Democrats are looking at a golden opportunity to seize the Senate, but it will be a hard fought battle requiring total commitment by party members across the nation.

The article then lays out the key factors at play in each of the battlefield states. It’s an engrossing read – and got me fired up! :running_man: :running_woman:


#340

____________________________________________________

Ballotpedia

List of U.S. Congress incumbents who are not running for re-election in 2020

____________________________________________________

Another great 2020 resource to bookmark. Look at that House graph! :ok_hand:

This page lists the incumbent members of the 116th U.S. Congress who are not running for re-election in the 2020 congressional elections for both U.S. Senate and U.S. House.


#341

Well…this poll tells us what we already knew…69% of registered voters dislike T.
And no one is exactly thrilled with the Dem candidates.

Quote

49% of those polled said they’re “very uncomfortable” with Trump’s 2020 candidacy. 41% said were “very uncomfortable” with Sen. Bernie Sanders, while 33% said the same for both Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

Article

69% of the 900 registered voters polled in the September NBC News/Wall Street Journal public opinion poll said they do not like Trump personally, regardless of their feelings about his policies.
Why it matters: Despite the conventional wisdom that incumbents have an upper hand in general elections, the poll indicates that Trump is the most disliked president out of his 5 most recent predecessors.
Details: The poll found Trump’s approval rating rests at 45%, which is on par with where Barack Obama and Bill Clinton stood at this point in their presidencies. Both Obama and Clinton won re-election, but neither president faced the high degree of personal animus that Trump faces today.

Previously, the highest  share of voters that said they disliked the president personally,  regardless of their views on his policies, was 42% for George W. Bush in  2006 — in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.
**49%  of those polled said they’re "very uncomfortable" with Trump's 2020  candidacy. 41% said were "very uncomfortable" with Sen. Bernie Sanders,  while 33% said the same for both Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren.**
At  the same time, the poll shows that 26% of voters are "enthusiastic"  about Trump's candidacy — compared to 17% for Warren, 13% for Sanders  and 12% for Biden.

The bottom line: While the poll suggests a record level of personal hostility toward Trump, it also reflects a polarized electorate that also has doubts about the 3 Democratic frontrunners.
The NBC/WSJ poll of 900 voters was conducted Sept. 13-16. The margin of error for all adults is +/- 3.27 percentage points.


#342

With tax cuts perhaps? Or what trickery do you have up your sleeves - destroy medicare, social security…?

Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said Thursday that the national debt would be his top priority if Republicans succeed in retaking the House in 2020.

First thing we would do is make sure our debt is taken care of,” McCarthy told reporters at a GOP retreat in Baltimore. “This is continuing to grow. … Every great society has collapsed when they’ve overextended themselves,” the California Republican warned.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mccarthy-says-debt-taken-care-220904314.html