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🗳 2020 Primary Election

Not only is Trump’s approval with Republicans not 96 percent, energy appears to be slipping

So here’s this again.


That’s from late Tuesday night, but President Trump has made the same claim repeatedly. He said his approval among Republicans was 96 percent on June 8, on June 6, on May 21, on May 12, on May 2, on April 21 and on April 10, which was the first time he claimed his approval was 96 percent. For about a year prior, he had consistently claimed it was 95 percent. Before that, he kept saying it was 94 percent.

As we’ve repeatedly pointed out, this isn’t how approval ratings work. You don’t earn a new level and stay at that level for months on end. If Trump’s approval rating was at 94 percent over and over in 2018, it would probably have jumped to 96 percent once or twice if only because of margins of error — and he would have tweeted about it.

But it’s also obviously false because there’s no public poll showing anything similar. In fact, despite Trump’s claim that 24 out of 25 Republicans view his job performance with approval, recent polling suggests energy within his party for his performance as president might actually be slipping.

The Economist conducts a national poll each week in partnership with YouGov. Each week, it asks respondents both whether they approve of the job that Trump is doing and whether they view Trump favorably as an individual.

For the most part, those views are static: Fewer than half of Americans view Trump with approval, but most Republicans do. The same pattern holds for favorability.

We’ve added a line to mark a 96 percent approval level. If you squint, you might notice that the Republican line falls somewhat short of that level. Every week. Over and over.

There’s a lot of noise in those lines because, well, that’s how real polls work. If we take a monthly average, we get a better sense of how views about Trump have shifted.

In March, 65 percent of Republicans viewed Trump’s job performance with strong approval. In June, that dropped to 57 percent, a decline of eight points. The percentage of Republicans who said they somewhat approved of Trump’s performance increased by about four points, meaning a four-point decline overall.

That overall change isn’t significant. But this decline in enthusiasm, measured in the shift from strong to somewhat approval, is a trend that Trump would want to avoid.

That’s not because he’s at serious risk of losing Republican votes to former vice president Joe Biden. In 2016, Hillary Clinton’s campaign invested heavily in trying to appeal to Republicans frustrated with or concerned about Trump’s candidacy, pitching them on backing her as the safe choice. On Election Day, they largely didn’t. Trump earned about as much support from Republicans as preceding Republican candidates.

A similar effort is underway to woo Republicans from Trump to Biden. On Tuesday, Axios reported on a new political action committee aimed at persuading Republicans to back the Democrat. It joins other efforts, including Republican Voters Against Trump, which has been producing ads attacking the president.

There’s no indication these efforts will result in a surge in votes for Biden. After all, although Trump’s approval rating among fellow Republicans isn’t 96 percent, it is high. Getting a Republican who’s lukewarm on Trump’s presidency to completely flip to the Democrats is a near-stratospheric bar to hurdle.

But what these efforts might instead be aiming for is something more modest: getting Republicans to stay home. Suppressing support for Trump, which benefits Biden nearly as much.

We tend to think of elections as polar, voters supporting Candidate A or Candidate B. We usually forget that there’s a middle point between those two: indifference. When politicians start to see their approval ratings sag, for example, it’s not because voters go from “approve” to “disapprove” overnight. It’s because they go from “strong approve” to “somewhat approve” to “not sure” — which is often where they land permanently.

Something similar happens on Election Day. The alternative to voting for Candidate A isn’t necessarily Candidate B. It can be no candidate at all.

This is why that trend in the Economist-YouGov poll should be alarming to Trump. Seeing people grow more skeptical of his presidency could mean an increase in people deciding against bothering to vote. That’s not a two-vote swing to Biden (Trump loses a vote, and Biden gains one), but it is a one-vote swing against the incumbent. And given Trump’s reelection strategy depends on maximizing his base and tamping down support for his opponent, it’s a potentially worrisome trend.

Of course, this is also a bit of cherry-picking on its own. The overall trend for Trump’s approval has been that it hasn’t really changed much at all. We put a lot of emphasis on small movements up and down just because any movement is unusual. If the past three years hold, Trump will be viewed in November about as he is now.

Although that is still more negatively than he claims he’s viewed.


An RNC Speaker Said Cops Would Be ‘Smart’ to Racially Profile Her Own Son

“Statistically, my brown son is more likely to commit a violent offense over my white sons,” anti-abortion activist Abby Johnson said in a YouTube video earlier this year.


Watch: 2020 Republican National Convention, Day 2

(I caught some last night, it left me wondering who this for, because yikes, this is hard to watch)


Watching with sound off…


With some of this, I can’t even. It’s just so



I agree…

I like to slice and dice what is behind the masks/lies/propaganda.
Power seeks power…they love it.

Unbridled power grifters and holier-than-thou righteous spouting monied crowd.

Examples -
Former AG Pam Bondi - gave us the Hunter Biden line. Bondi was paid by T to drop her investigations on T University, vis-a-vis her campaign. Then she goes in for the unproved claim that Hunter and Biden profited from Ukraine. (Exact same charges against T and his family)

Tiffany - Spouting that Americans are being hoodwinked by media and Silicon Valley into believing things that are not true. Her father (and never describes that relationship) is the one who can help us achieve their dreams. She is wooden in her appeal. Empty suit.

Ok…that’s what I think (and yet we already know that going in…)


Now we come to the cross pollination section of the RNC show where T takes his presidential duty so seriously that he takes part in a naturalization ceremony of 5 citizens (of varying religions) into the WH and Acting HSS head, Chad Wolf acting as the official who bestows their American citizenship.

Yes, gameshow material…cross-Hatch-Act dilemma. Comments below.


Now Melania…in military wear. WTF

A little backgrounder on Melania’s work and immigration status



This is downright ghoulish.


Made all the worse by its accuracy.


See, I can’t even with this
If she says shit like that to her son, that constitutes emotional abuse.


I just realized we’re talking about two different stories. I was referring to the video, but I now realize @celena meant the woman who racially profiled her own son, based on the context of your response. In which, yeah, that is very ghoulish.


Watch: 2020 Republican National Convention, Day 3



Highlights for those who missed Day 2
Thanks @matt


Some recaps which are from NBC reporter…and links to and a few other

Just mind boggling always to hear the truth from the false assertions. Par for the course.

Donald Trump continued to shift money from his donors to his business last month, as his reelection campaign paid his private companies for rent, food, lodging and other expenses, according to a review of the latest Federal Election Commission filings. The richest president in American history, who has yet to donate to his 2020 campaign, has now moved $2.3 million of contributions from other people into his private companies.

The most recent expenses look familiar. The president accepted $38,000 in rent last month through Trump Tower Commercial LLC, the entity that owns his Fifth Avenue skyscraper. Since Trump took office, his campaign has paid that company $1.5 million, more than any other property in the Trump empire, according to an analysis of federal filings. The Republican National Committee also coordinated with the campaign to pay Trump Tower Commercial LLC an additional $225,000.

Trump got another $8,000 in July via the Trump Corporation, a management company that he owns. The precise reason for those payments is unclear. Campaign filings describe the rationale as “legal & IT consulting” but it’s still a mystery why Trump’s management company is providing such services. The Trump Corporation has now taken in $281,000 from the campaign since the president entered the Oval Office.

More money went to Trump Restaurants LLC, another company the president owns outright. Those payments may be connected to a kiosk in the basement of Trump Tower that sells campaign memorabilia. It’s hard to imagine that the kiosk has been doing much business amid the coronavirus crisis, but the campaign has continued to pay its rent, $3,000 per month. Trump Restaurants LLC has gotten $117,000 since its owner became president.

Trump Hotel Collection, in which Trump also owns a 100% interest, received another $1,000 in July. The campaign has paid Trump’s hotel properties $226,000 since Inauguration Day, according to the analysis of federal filings.

Not every company cashed in last month. Forbes found no payments to Mar-a-Lago, the president’s golf clubs, or Trump Plaza LLC—an entity that controls property on Third Avenue in Manhattan and previously collected regular rent from the reelection effort.

Trump’s machinations have been going on for years now. Forbes first reported on money moving from his reelection campaign to his business in 2018. The amount has more than doubled since then.

The Trump Organization did not respond to a request for comment. A representative for the Trump campaign ignored a series of questions about the payments and instead issued a broad statement. “The campaign complies with all campaign finance laws and FEC regulations,” the statement said. “The campaign pays fair market value under negotiated rental agreements and other service agreements in compliance with the law. The campaign works closely with campaign counsel to ensure strict compliance in this regard.”


This is Elizabeth Neumann, Former Asst Secy of Counterintelligence/Threat Protection from DHS who is coming out against T. Looks like she may be part of the REPAIR group that was banded together recently, and creating materials for ads. (Republicans Against Trump)

Yes, her words are powerful. T should not be re-ecected. Period.



Yeah I was slightly confused

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#8 At least they cancelled it I guess? I honestly did not expect that they would. I figured they would just embrace it like every other horrible thing they say is fine and good.


This is all just so very beyond the pale but she’s just another banana in the basket with this bunch. Is it good sign that the GOP still frowns at open anti semitism? I hope so because so far there is no bottom. At least that would be some kind of moral objection to all this hate speech coming out the GOP base.

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Revisionist historic reasoning…it ain’t over buddy.:disappointed_relieved: