Listened to Fareed Zakaria CNN talk with Tony Blair, former Prime MinisterâŚon Sunday and read the transcript this am. Learned a few things about Brexit but also about what a common view in politics in general.
They both talk about highlighting where the common themes of Conservative politics - they go after garnering votes by appealing to cultural norms, ie - immigration and scare people into how it will affect your livelihood. And these kinds of appeals are emotional, and therefore more binding. And progressives think all solutions are economic which may be true but wonât expand their base. And if the economy is good, then no new ground can be gained.
and Blair emphasizes that Social Media compounds the issue as well as who may have the momentum.
Transcript below. Interesting discussion as it intersects with American politics, the Democratic debate etc.
ZAKARIA: And we are back with Tony Blair, former prime minister of the United Kingdom and founder of the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
One of the things that last week â I think it was George Osborne, the former chancellor of the Exchequer, said that Britain is going to face an awful choice between a hard Brexit advocated by a party, that is Boris Johnsonâs Tory Party, and a socialist, even a Marxist Labour Party leader, Corbyn.
[10:20:07]
Why is it that the center left seems to have lost ground here? Which seemed â you know, what you represented, what Bill Clinton represented, what is your diagnosis of that?
BLAIR: My diagnosis is twofold. One, we stopped providing the momentum for change, in an era where people want change, if youâre the guardian of the status quo, youâre in trouble. So the center left, center right appeared to be in that position. Secondly, I often say to people, itâs also because social media is transforming the entire way politics is conducted. But one of the interesting aspects of that is that social media creates the circumstances in which a takeover of a traditional political party is very easy.
And therefore, what I would say is, for example, in Britain at the moment, a centrist proposition is not really on over. So when people say it doesnât work, well, it doesnât work for either of the two main political parties. Itâs a much more open question as to whether itâs actually lost support among the people.
And if you look around Europe today, if you see the victory of Emmanuel Macron in France, for example, itâs not entirely clear to me that the center ground canât win, but itâs got to be offering a politics of change, itâs got to show a narrative of optimism about the future, which, I think, by the way should be focused around the technological revolution thatâs happening at the moment. And itâs got to be offered by a credible political party.
ZAKARIA: Part of what seems to me to be happening is that in these kinds of uncertain times, the left always assumes that the answer is economics. That if you offer people more of good ease, you look at whatâs happening in Democratic primaries, but what really happens is people donât move left economically, they move right culturally.
BLAIR: Right.
ZAKARIA: And the right is very good at offering cultural solutions, immigration, you know, whatever it is.
BLAIR: Yes. Absolutely. And this is â so my view is that there is a certain peaking of this populism, because in the end, of course, these people say they provide answers and they really donât. And after a time when youâre experiencing them, youâre saying, OK, but we were promised everything was going to be fantastic, and look, my life is not that changed.
But it is cultural as much as economic. And a low may peak and provide an opportunity for, I would say, sensible, serious-minded politics to recapture the initiative. Itâs got to do it. And the risk is that people say, well, look, people have gone for a populism of the right, so maybe if we provide a populism of the left, then theyâll go for that, too. Well, first of all, I donât think thatâs true. I think in the end, a
populism of the right faced with a populism of the left, I think the right usually wins, Iâm afraid. Because the tunes, the right player are more immediately attractive and appeal deeper to the emotions of people. But quite apart from that, if youâre going to deal with the current situation, you have to focus on the culture as well as the economic.
And these questions to do with immigration and the values around that, itâs very, very important that if youâre from a center left, progressive, liberal tradition, you donât just dismiss those anxieties or say people who are engaged in worrying about them are somehow sort of quasi-racist. So this is â you know, my view is, the right wins when the left facilitates.
And the most important thing right now, therefore, in any politics in which youâre fighting a right-wing populism, is youâve got to build from the center. Itâs just, in my view, a fundamental strategic mistake if you then say, well, look, OK, what we really want to do is to get in and weâre going to give you a revolution from the left. Particularly if that revolution seems to people to be ignoring what are genuine cultural issues and simply focusing on economic ones.
ZAKARIA: Sol I think if I would translate Tony Blairâs, you know, message and attitude to the Democratic primaries, for example, it would be Democratic candidates should be saying things like crossing the border illegally is a crime. You know, there is a reality to a problem of illegal immigration. We have â in other words, you have to sound like youâre credible on those issues.
BLAIR: Well, you have to sound like you understand that there is a genuine problem and you want to deal with it. But I always say to people, if you donât deal with these types of problems like immigration, and deal with it properly, consistent with your values, of course, you should treat people properly.
Immigration, by the way, is a good thing, not a bad thing for a country. All of that is true, but if you want the permission to make that argument, youâve got to understand that there is genuine anxiety if immigration is uncontrolled or itâs happening illegally.
If youâre not prepared to reach out to those people and understand that, then Iâm afraid youâre just going to be left in a position where, sure, youâll get a round of applause from a group of party activists, but Iâm afraid those donât decide the election.
[10:20:03]
So, this is â you know, this is the age-old perennial problem of progressive politics. That itâs â and, you know, I obviously have followed the Democrat debates here, but itâs important if youâre standing to win an election in a country, right, you want the country to come behind you, youâve got to appeal to more than your base.
ZAKARIA: And what do you say to those who say, yes, but, that is not going to excite the Democratic debate, the Labour base. In other words, your argument is thereâs a kind of cold national centrism, but whatâs going to stir people and bring them out, you know, in droves, which is what you need is some kind of â you know, the drama, the romance?
BLAIR: Yes. What I say is, but without power, these are just words. I mean, theyâre just words. They donât advance anyone. Look, before I came â let me give you two specific examples from my own experience in government. Before I came to office in 1997, there was no minimum wage in the U.K. The policy against a minimum wage from the Conservatives used to be used against Labour time and time and time again.
We then introduced a minimum wage thatâs now part of the consensus politically in the U.K. But we only did it because we reached out to business anxieties and worked with them in order to do it in a sensible way.
The other thing is gay rights, right? Before I came to power, the Conservatives, as a political party, used to use this issue the entire time as a sort of wedge issue with the right-wing vote. Today, gay marriage is actually an accepted part of the political consensus between Conservatives and Labour. So if you want to make real change, youâve got to â youâve got to have your politics motivated by strategic discipline, not by self-indulgence. And itâs just â itâs a simple thing that youâve got to do.
And if youâre not prepared to do it, then what it means is, in the end, itâs all about you. Itâs not about the people. Itâs about you, itâs about how you feel about yourself as a political activist. But, no, itâs not, in the end. You know, your political activism is pretty meaningless unless it ultimately results in a better life for them, for the people you want to represent.
ZAKARIA: Tony Blair, pleasure to have you on, sir.
BLAIR: Thank you.
