Putting this Opinion piece from NYT on what is going on with Manafort here, since he is one of the key players in this Mueller investigation. WHy was Manafort double-dealing with Mueller, going back and forth with Tâs shared lawyers.
Some possible hypotheses
Now we learn that his cooperation was squirrelly and incomplete, a series of prevarications that obviously infuriated the prosecutors, who gave him one final 10-day chance to play it straight. But he did not heed the warning and now is unlikely to ever leave prison absent a pardon from President Trump. Which leads us to:
Hypothesis No. 1: The Pardon Promise
Did the president secretly promise to rescue Mr. Manafort, so long as he resisted Mr. Mueller? That would make sense of his otherwise confounding conduct. But the chain of implausibilities is long.
The prospect of a pardon was always in the mix, including when Mr. Manafort made his initial decision to cooperate. For it to suffice to change his mind now, it would have to have become all the more certain. But that would entail some communication, from the president, through two intermediaries (one in the Trump camp and one in the Manafort camp) and on to Mr. Manafort in prison, where all his conversations are monitored.
The perils for all those participants in such a crass scheme would be enormous. If discovered, it would mean assured conviction for witness tampering and, if any of the intermediaries was a lawyer, disbarment. For the president, it most likely would trigger impeachment, and even conviction in the Senate could not be counted out. Finally, for Mr. Manafort, it would require a measure of Mr. Trumpâs good faith that nobody acquainted with the presidentâs track record could comfortably have. And it would still not shield him from near-certain prosecution for related state crimes.
Hypothesis No. 2: The Assassination Fixation
Some commentators have suggested that Mr. Manafortâs lifetime of shady dealings with the Russian government have left him more afraid of life on the outside, where he could be vulnerable to a poison needle anytime, than of the safe confines of a federal prison.
This scenario was always out of the most imaginative Le CarrĂ© novel, and it is the sheer unlikelihood of the other alternatives, combined with Mr. Manafortâs intransigence, that makes it a contender at all. The problem with it at this point is that thereâs no reason to think that any of the cloak-and-dagger circumstances would have changed. If Mr. Manafort most feared the spyâs comeuppance, he wouldnât have agreed to cooperate, and earn a much reduced sentence, in the first place. So that hypothesis doesnât help explain Mr. Manafortâs decision to double-cross Mr. Mueller.
Hypothesis No. 3: The Bad Gambler
Perhaps Mr. Manafort, who has enjoyed a lifelong reputation as a swashbuckling big-time gambler, is simply a lousy poker player. He blinked when the pot got too big and opted to fold, forfeiting what heâd already spent. But then some combination of unsettled resolve and a lifetime of lying as an M.O. made him hope that he could eat his cake and have it too â that he could lie his way out of the situation. This is not exactly irrational, but it is colossally stupid, particularly when playing across the table from Mr. Mueller and not knowing the cards the special counsel was holding.
Those cards will now be revealed as a consequence of Mr. Manafortâs dithering. He will proceed directly to sentencing, in connection with which Mr. Mueller will provide the court with detailed proof of Mr. Manafortâs lies during the aborted cooperation period.
That means evidence of the truthful answers to the questions lied about. Considering that Mr. Manafortâs cooperation almost certainly had to involve the highest targets and most important evidence, that memorandum will be a treasure trove of as-yet-unknown fruits of Mr. Muellerâs investigation, particularly into the possible connection of the campaign with Russian meddling in the election. It could conceivably contain Mr. Muellerâs understanding of Tuesdayâs report, in The Guardian, that Mr. Manafort met with Julian Assange multiple times, including in March 2016, just before he took the helm of the Trump campaign, a job he was so desperate to have that he agreed to work free.
For that reason, the memorandum may be filed under seal, but even so, it operates as a hedge against the possibility that Mr. Muellerâs report might eventually be bottled up at the Department of Justice, for example under the order of Acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker. It will ultimately be for the court, not Mr. Whitaker, to unseal the document.
As for the formerly high-flying Mr. Manafort, he has nothing left to wager with. He is, permanently, a luckless wretch, out of options and tapped out. He has become a gamblerâs worst nightmare.
Excellent Roger Stone Analysis piece from The NY Times.